Archive for April, 2011

EURUSD Weekly Summary: April 30

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The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum this week, topped at 1.4881 and closed at 1.4803. Overall the bullish technical bias remains strong at least targeting 1.5000.? On h4 chart below we can see price also still maintain its current bullish characteristic where the broken resistances (1.4518, 1.4647, 1.4790) become a good supports. 1.4790 is the key intraday support at this phase and as long as price stays above that area my intraday bias remains more to the upside. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.4647 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish outlook should remain intact.

Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.

Weekly Trading Update (April 25 ? 29, 2011)

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?Stop focusing on whether a trade was a winner or a loser and focus on flawless execution instead? I don?t look at my profit and loss and decide from that whether or not I have had a good trading week. My sole focus is whether I flawlessly executed my trading plan for the week? Most traders use their profit and loss for the week to guide them on how well they traded that week, which in my opinion is a very bad guide. Focus purely on flawlessly executing your trading plan and most of your psychological issues with trading will disappear.? ? Travis McKenzie

Hello:

Like Grace Cheng, who was mentioned in my last weekly trading update, Travis McKenzie has also found financial freedom in trading. Travis, whose quotes are above and below this article, (being featured in a recent TRADERS? edition), combined trading with his career as a lawyer for many years until he finally tired of the corporate world in 2005. At this time Travis established his previously part-time pursuit of trading as full time endeavor. The difference being, Travis spent as little time trading as a full time trader as he did as a part-timer. He now had free time on his hands to pursue other ventures, namely lifestyle. This shows that you can attain financial freedom thru trading if you want it badly enough.

Below is the summary of some of my market viewpoint.

AUDUSD
Primary Trend: Bullish
Trend riders would?ve been enjoying easy profits on this pair for over a month now. The best decision right now is trend-following. This present scenario would hold as long as the fundamentals remain in support of the bulls.

NZDUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
My viewpoint on this pair is similar to that of the AUDUSD. The trend is expected to continue, though it won?t last forever. I?d just keep my eyes on the movement of the real price. The only valid prices always are the high and low prices, never opening or closing prices.

EURCAD
Primary trend: Bullish
There?s been a new bullish breakout on this cross since last week, and this may be fueled more by more weakness in the CAD. Only a seriously weak EUR would reverse the trend.

EURAUD
Primary trend: Bearish
This market has been moving sideways for several days. The reason is that both the Euro and the Aussie are strong. There must be a stronger base currency or counter currency before there can be any meaningful trend. Demand must be out of balance for the price to move nicely. I?ll just keep my fingers crossed in order to know when a new trend would resume. If you can?t see any trend, then the market is in a sideways situation.

EURNZD
Primary trend: Bullish
It looks like the recent bearish correction wouldn?t turn into a sustained bearish move: it looks like a bullish trend is resuming. The price is now crossing the SMA 20 upwards. The ADX 20 level is winding towards the level 30 (showing the possibility of a decrease in the market volatility). The +DI is trying to cross the ?DI to the upside. Could this provide a nice buying opportunity?

AUDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Since March 17, 2011, this cross has moved up by over 1400 pips. It even recently provided some market speculators with an opportunity to buy when the price was on sale, and in the context of an uptrend. It?s possible that a bearish ride may resume, but it?s better to wait until all the factors are in one?s favor. By doing this, one?s probability cup would overflow.

Conclusion: In his 2 successful books ?Fooled by Randomness? and ?The Black Swan,? Nassim Nicolas Taleb explains how on the one hand, one?s own perception may distort happiness, and that, on the other hand, staunchly held convictions may be fallible. And, he argues, this is not just the case in trading but every sphere of life. One experienced trader declares that if you?ve been trading for any length of time you?ve probably come to realize that the Traders Grail does not exist! If you?re new to trading, let me break it to you more directly. Stop looking for something that doesn?t exist and lean to trade using decision support tools. Just as there?s no ?one size fits all? pair of shoes, trousers or shirt that?s comfortable and fits properly on everyone, there?s no single trading tool, technique that will always work. The best we can do is to become ?competent? and ?confident? in the way we trade and let the results speak for themselves.

I end this article with a quote from Travis McKenzie:

1. ?I was about 18 years old and had just started my law degree at university. I was in the library one day and started reading a magazine which listed the richest 500 people in Australia. I was shocked that nearly all of them had attained their wealth through business, property or the stock market and there were no lawyers on the list who had made millions solely from practicing law. I was always told to study hard, get a good job and you?ll become wealthy but the evidence in front of me contradicted that. It was that magazine that started my passion for [trading]?? Italics mine

2. ?I can see myself being in my 80s and still trading the markets. It has been a lifelong passion for me and I love the challenge it provides me.?

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha

Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

Get my Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

 

4 Ways to Evaluate Forex Currency Trading Software

Apr 29, 2011

This educational video presents 4 steps to make sure that the Forex trading software you are buying will be useful to you rather than help you to wipe your account clean.

Forex Daily Outlook — April 29th 2011

Apr 29, 2011

EUR/USD, USD/CAD and GBP/JPY are evaluated in this daily outlook video to come up with the intraday Forex trading plan for today.

EURUSD Daily Forecast: April 29

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was able to maintain its bullish bias yesterday. There were some downside pressures but 1.4790 area provided good intraday support so far. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but need another clear break above 1.4881 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.5000. On the downside, a consistent move below 1.4790 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4700 but overall the major outlook remains to the upside.

Daily Forecast for Crosses: April 29

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected lower yesterday but 120.38 support area still provide a good intraday support as you can see on my h4 chart below. I still prefer a bullish intraday outlook but a break below 120.38 could be a threat to my bullish intraday outlook testing 118.40/00 support area. On the upside we need a clear break above 121.40 to change the intraday bias back to bullish and keep the bullish scenario remains strong testing 121.80 ? 122.50 before testing 123.31.

GBPJPY? Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, fell below 135.90 and now struggling around that area as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact forces my intraday bias to neutral zone but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario. A clear break below 135.50 would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 134.80 ? 134.00 support area. On the upside, we need a clear break at least above 136.50 to keep the upside pressure remains strong testing 137.00 and 139.67

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was able to maintain its bullish bias yesterday. There were some minor downside pullback earlier today in Asian session but 1.0877 still provide a good intraday support. The bias remains bullish in nearest term still targeting new historical high projection around 1.1000 ? 1.1050. A clear break below 1.0877 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0770 ? 1.0750 support area but the major scenario remains strongly to the upside.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: April 29

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GBPUSD? Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.6745 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 1.6643. Overall price is still in a bullish outlook. 1.6635 still provide a good intraday support so far but strong selling activities yesterday force my intraday mode in neutral zone and need a consistent movement at least back above 1.6700 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.6850 and 1.7000. On the downside, a clear break below 1.6635 could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.6580 ? 1.6500 support area.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: April 29

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday and now traded below 81.61 support area suggests the downside pressure remains strong. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still targeting 80.85. Looks like there is a good intraday support around 81.25, but as long as price stays below 82.00 the intraday bias remains to the downside. Another move back above 82.00 would lead us to neutral zone as intraday direction would become unclear testing 82.50/73 resistance area.

USDCHF Daily Forecast: April 29

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.8686 but further bearish pressure was rejected and closed higher at 0.8729. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a context of a strong bearish outlook still targeting 0.8600 ? 0.8500 area. Immediate resistance remains around 0.8779 and the upper line of the bearish channel. A clear break above the bearish channel could trigger further upside pullback testing 0.8900 resistance area but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

AUD/USD Hourly Elliott Wave Mark-Up — April 28th 2011

Apr 28, 2011

Watch this latest report on hourly AUD/USD Elliott Wave analysis. Although there’s still some place to go upward, there’s a possibility for a quite deep (300 pips) correction if the support level is breached.