Archive for May, 2011

EURUSD Daily Forecast: May 31

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum, break above 1.4340 and hit 1.4405 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.4420/70 resistance area (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4939 – 1.3968). A clear break above that area would be a threat to the medium term bearish outlook since the fall from 1.4939 testing 1.4560. Immediate support at 1.4340/20 (former resistance). A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4250 region but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel and above 1.4200 I still prefer a bullish intraday bias at this phase. Only a violation to the bullish channel could be a threat to the current bullish intraday bias retesting 1.4000 strong/psychological support area.

Daily Forecast for Crosses: May 31

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, break above 116.00 and hit 116.93. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 117.20/60 resistance area. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish scenario testing the trend line resistance as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate support at 116.00. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the overall intraday bias remains to the upside.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday but had a strong bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session break above 134.00 and hit 134.51. This fact suggests further potential bullish scenario which started since the break above the trend line resistance (blue) testing 135.15 in nearest term. Above 135.15, 136.09 and 137.03 would be the next resistances to be tested by the current bullish intraday outlook. Immediate support at 134.00. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and might lead us back to sideways condition even testing 132.61 as a false breakout scenario could be produced but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias remains bullish in nearest term after the violation to the trend line resistance as you can see on my daily chart below but I think we still need a clear break above 1.0770 to confirm the end of the bearish outlook and might lead us to a bullish outlook testing 1.0887 and 1.1010 even aim for new all time high projection. Immediate support at 1.0650/30. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.0500. Daily CCI is now testing 100 level suggests an upside pressure but need a move above 100 level to get us in bullish outlook.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: May 31

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday but had a bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, break above 1.6516 and hit 1.6545. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.6600. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish scenario testing 1.6737. Immediate support at 1.6516. A clear break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6450 but as long as price stays above 1.6400 my intraday bias remains to the upside.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: May 31

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday but had some bullish pressure earlier today in Asian session hit 81.36 after unable to make a clear break below 80.85 support area. This fact keeps the bullish scenario since the appearance of the hammer candle stick formation intact but would need a clear break above 81.30 to continue the bullish scenario testing 82.00 and 83.30. On the downside, a clear break below 80.85 could trigger further downside pressure testing 80.16 and 79.55 support area. From h4 chart perspective, the movement below the trend line support stopped the medium term bullish outlook and need a clear break above 82.00 to continue the medium term bullish outlook and lead us to a new bullish phase.

USDCHF Daily Forecast: May 31

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday but overall still able to maintain its strong bearish intraday outlook and stays below 0.8555 so far. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 0.8460 still targeting 0.8400 – 0.8350. On the upside, a clear break above 0.8555 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 0.8670 – 0.8710 my intraday bias remains strongly to the downside.

EURUSD Daily Forecast: May 30

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, closed at 1.4315. As you can see on my hourly chart below price is moving inside the bullish channel suggests a bullish intraday outlook since the failure to make a clear break below 1.4000, testing 1.4340. Note that the medium/h4 chart bearish scenario since the fall from 1.4939 remains intact but a clear break above 1.4340 could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.4420 and would open the door for further upside scenario testing 1.4560 which could be a threat to the medium term bearish outlook. Immediate support at 1.4190. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing the lower line of the bullish channel but I think we need a clear break below strong/psychological support 1.4000 to continue the bearish scenario.

Daily Forecast for Crosses: May 30

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum on Friday but there are no changes in my daily technical outlook as price still trapped in range area of 116.00 – 114.00 so far. Aggressive intraday traders can still short around 116.00 or long around 114.00 with tight stop loss. As you can see on my h4 chart below, despite of a sideways movement in the last three weeks price is moving inside a bullish channel suggests more upside bias especially if price able to make a clear break above 116.00 testing 117.22/60 region. On the downside, a clear break below 114.00 and a violation to the bullish channel could trigger further bearish scenario testing 112.05 even lower.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY made another insignificant movement on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term with potential range area between 134.00 – 132.61. I prefer a bullish intraday outlook since the break above the trend line resistance and for me 132.61 is the best place for a long position with good risk – reward ratio. A clear break below 132.61 would activate my wait and see mode as direction would become unclear testing 131.50 region. On the upside, a clear break above 134.00 could trigger further upside momentum testing 135.15 even higher.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday and slipped above the trend line resistance as you can see on my daily chart below. This fact is a threat to the bearish outlook since the fall from all time high 1.1010 especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.0770 retesting 1.1010 even aim for new all time high projection. As long as price moves above 1.0600 my intraday bias remains bullish and aggressive intraday traders can still activate their bullish mode but note that price is now at critical technical phase where movement can be a little bit tricky. A clear break below 1.0600 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the bearish scenario remains intact testing 1.0500 – 1.0440 support area.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: May 30

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday but found a good intraday resistance around 1.6516. My intraday bias remains to the upside especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.6516 testing 1.6600 even 1.6737. Immediate support at 1.6400. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price moves above 1.6305 I still prefer a bullish intraday outlook since the violation to the trend line resistance stopped the bearish outlook.

USDJPY Daily Forecast: May 30

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was able to maintain its bearish intraday bias after break below range area on Friday and now struggling around 80.85 key support area. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 80.85 testing 80.16 and 79.55. On my daily chart below we can see price slipped below the trend line support suggests a threat to the bullish outlook and only a clear break back above 81.30 would keep the bullish outlook intact testing 82.00 region.

USDCHF Daily Forecast: May 30

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum on Friday, break below 0.8555. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.8400 – 0.8350. Immediate resistance at 0.8555. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price moves below 0.8670 – 0.8710 I still prefer a bearish intraday bias at this phase.