Archive for December, 2011

EUR/USD, EUR/CHF — December 30th 2011

Dec 30, 2011

Watch the latest analysis of the EUR/USD, EUR/CHF Forex pairs for the December 30th in this video. EUR/USD — This pair fell during the Thursday session and bounced at 1.2950 level and formed a hammer during Friday session. The 1.29 level is the bottom of the 1.30 support level, which suggests a bounce could be coming. We are into low volume markets at the moment. A break down of the bottom of the range is seen very bearish. Probably a little bit of a bounce for short covering is not neccessarily be out of question, but any kind of major move is highly unlikely. EUR/CHF — We have a similar setup. We are in the bottom of the recent consolidation range. A short term long trade would be up to 1.2250 level and not neccessarily looking for a any kind of massive move. A break of the bottom from Friday session will get the price closer to 1.20 level. However we won’t be selling this pair at the moment. Any long trade in this pair would be in the shorter term.

EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY — December 30th 2011

Dec 30, 2011

Watch the latest analysis of the EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY Forex pairs for the December 30th in this video. EUR/GBP — We rose directly upto 0.8400 cluster. This area is seen as resistance. We prefer to wait and see if we can get upto 0.8500 level which was a scene of serious breakdown. It is yet to be retested. A bounce at 0.8500 level and some type of resistive candle at this level is seen as a signal to sell. EUR/JPY — We saw this pair fell pretty hard on Thursday session and formed a hammer candle on Friday session. This pair is in a downtrend and breaking of lows is massively bearish. We like selling on rallies for this pair. Until we get above the 1.05 level there is no reason to buy this even then a quick trade could be done.

Technical Analysis Lesson — 38 — Why Markets Move Ahead of Interest Rate Announcements

Dec 30, 2011

This video is thirty eigth lesson in a series on technical analysis for  active traders of forex markets. A lesson on how markets and traders anticipate interest rate changes in the forex markets.

Watch the Crowd Strategy — Part 1

Dec 29, 2011

In this video, you will learn about a Forex strategy of watching the crowd. This is the lesson 1 of a two part series. This strategy involves watching the crowd and try to see where the crowd is going and try to get ourselves in and out manually. A market consolidation followed by a news release and see what the market does.

Forex Analysis: The Canadian Dollar and Oil — December 29th 2011

Dec 29, 2011

The author of this video looks at the oil markets and the Iranian drama. The Iranians were put in their place by both the Saudis and the US Navy’s 5th Fleet on Wednesday sending oil prices lower. With this being said — how do we make money in the FX markets due to this?

EUR/USD, EUR/CHF — December 29th 2011

Dec 29, 2011

Watch the latest analysis of the EUR/USD, EUR/CHF Forex pairs for the December 29th in this video. EUR/USD — During the Wednesday session, we did get a bit of a sell—off as we crossed below the 1.30 level. The 1.30 level is the beginning of a massive support zone, which is 100 pips thick and we don’t see a sell signal until we get below the 1.29 level on a daily close. If the Italian bond auctions don’t go well, we will see the euro to fall. If the auctions go well, we will see a bounce. However bounces in the euro presently are to be sold as you see everytime it rallies, it simply fails and selling gains. EUR/CHF — This pair is at the bottom of the consolidation range. We won’t be buying this pair. If Italian bond auctions don’t go well, it could send this pair much lower. Selling won’t be easy either, since the Swiss National Bank has a floor at 1.20 level. Its not the type of the trading environment we want to be in, at this point of time of the year with low liquidity.

USD/CAD, CAD/JPY — December 29th 2011

Dec 29, 2011

Watch the latest analysis of the USD/CAD, CAD/JPY Forex pairs for the December 29th in this video. USD/CAD — This pair fell during the Wednesday session and formed a hammer candle as seen in the daily chart. The pair is highly sensitive to oil prices, and with the drama unfolding in the Persian Gulf — there is a lot of volatility We see support all the way down to 0.9900 level. A break on session high from Wednesday session is seen as a signal to buy and will have testing the high of 1.05 level. CAD/JPY — We have a similar price action. This pair fell from 77.00 level. The Japanese have to import 100% of their oil, and Canada is a major exporter. Because of this, the pair tends to move in concert with the oil markets. Because of this, the breaking of the lows of Wednesday is seen as a decent selling opportunity for a 150 pips or so.

EURUSD Daily Forecast: December 29

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, closed below 1.2947 and hit 1.2886 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing January low at 1.2873. A clear break and daily close below that area could trigger further bearish scenario testing 1.2800 – 1.2750 support area even lower. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.2947 (former support/low). A clear break back above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3050/70 but any upside pullback now is normal and overall I remain bearish on this pair with sell on rallies strategy.

Daily Forecast for Crosses: December 29

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, broke below 100.74 and hit 100.34 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 100.00 psychological support.  A clear break and daily close below that area could trigger further bearish scenario testing 99.20/00. Immediate resistance is seen around 100.74 (former support/low). A clear break back above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays below 102.48 my overall intraday bias remains to the downside and I still prefer to sell on rallies at this phase.

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 120.24 and hit 120.05 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 119.35. A clear break below that area would be a threat to the double bottom bullish reversal scenario. Immediate resistance is seen around 120.80. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 121.50 but as long as stays below 122.62 my overall intraday bias remains to the downside and I still prefer to sell on rallies at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after touched the upper line of the triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps price in a consolidation phase inside the triangle but gives another chance for my bearish reversal scenario after hit the record high five months ago. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.9980/25. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.0120. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term retesting the upper line of the triangle and 1.0200/50 resistance area but unless we have a clear break above the triangle I expect no further bullish scenario.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast: December 29

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GBPUSD  Forecast
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 1.5434 and hit 1.5426 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term but note that as long as stays above 1.5407 actually price remains sideways and need a clear break and daily close below 1.5407 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.5330 – 1.5270. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.5500. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5550 – 1.5600 and keep price in a sideways condition since five weeks ago.