Archive for December, 2011

USDJPY Daily Forecast: December 29

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USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 77.55 but closed higher at 77.93. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and volatility remains low.  I still prefer to have a long term perspective, seeing area above 75.56 as a buy zone, expecting a bullish reversal scenario after hit the record low. Immediate support remains around 77.50 followed by 77.12. Immediate resistance is seen around 78.20/50 area. A clear break and daily close above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 79.52 region. Price has been in a long period of consolidation after hit the record low and likely to stay this way during the last week of this year.

USDCHF Daily Forecast: December 29

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USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday and now moving above 0.9400. This fact could end the bearish correction phase after failed to stay consistently below 0.9320 support area and turn my nearest term bias back to a bullish mode testing 0.9500/46 area. Immediate support is seen around 0.9400. A clear break back below that area could lead price to a neutral zone in nearest term retesting 0.9320. My overall technical outlook remains bullish.

USD/CHF, USD/JPY — December 28th 2011

Dec 28, 2011

Watch the latest analysis of the USD/CHF, USD/JPY Forex pairs for the upcoming December 28th session in this video. USD/CHF — we did have a little bit of a fall on the Tuesday session and retested the recent break out we had above the 0.9300 level. After finding support at this level, this pair is grinding sideways. Its very hard to make any heads or tails for this pair at this time of the year, between two major holidays. Because of this the volumes are slightly down. The 0.9500 level will have to be overcome inorder to show longer term bullishness in this pair. With SNB against the appreciation of CHF and the world loves the USD, overall this pair looks bullish and its a question of how long is it going to take to move. USD/JPY — We have a little bit of a triangle going. If we go up the 80.00 level is seen as massive resistance. If we go down, the Bank of Japan will intervene sooner or later. However the intervention of BOJ may not be coming any soon. If we break the bottom of the triangle, which is seen as a signal to sell aiming for about 150 pips. If we break the top, then we have to wait until it gets close to 80.00 level and see if we fail, we then short this pair.

Trade the News

This video talks about the trading the news which is the grand finale of the fundamental analysis. The author presents with a quick checklist.
1. Download the weekly economic calendar.
2. Plan your Week.
3. Work …

GBP/USD, GBP/JPY — December 28th 2011

Dec 28, 2011

Watch the latest analysis of the GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Forex pairs for the upcoming December 28th session in this video. GBP/USD — On Tuesday we saw this pair rally a bit, but failed at 1.56 level which is seen as massive resistance going all the way up to 1.58 level. The lower end of this consolidation range is 1.55 to 1.54 level. This pair is looking bearish and lack of volume is going to keep most pairs choppy in rangebound in this week. Shorting this pair on signs of weakness is probably the way to go for the next couple of sessions. GBP/JPY — We have a similar situation. We are getting closer to the top of the range and formed a shooting star like candle on Tuesday session in a low volume environment. It looks likely that we are going to see only lower prices. We are looking to sell on break of the lows from Tuesday session, however only for a scalp, playing the low volatility range bound nature of the market to our advantage.

Money Management — Always Use Stops

Dec 27, 2011

This video talks about using the stop—loss in Money management. You need to place stop—orders to ensure you do not risk a large sum of money. Stops are not calculated by asking the question, how much can i afford to lose?. Stops are calculated by asking the question, at what point will i know i am wrong. As soon as we know we are wrong we can cut off our losses and we are out and we don’t have to wait any longer to get out.

MetaTrader 4 Tutorial — Placing Orders (Part 2)

Dec 27, 2011

This is part 2 of a two part tutorial explaining the different order types and how to place them in Metatrader. Metatrader is a very versatile and widely used forex trading platform. Many new forex traders and professional traders utilize this platform for all of their forex trading needs. Throughout this video you will learn all of the different order types that you are able to trade on Metatrader.

The Importance of Exit Strategy — 4

Dec 27, 2011

A fourth part of the free trading video that explains the importance of the exit strategy in Forex market. The author of this video likes to conclude this series by acknowleding 4 great traders who have been influential in helping shape his beliefs about trade management and exits.

EURUSD Daily Forecast: December 27

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive last week, made a Doji on weekly chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. My overall technical bias remains to the downside but price is still consolidating and need a clear break below 1.2947 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.2873 even lower. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3100 followed by 1.3145/60. A clear break above 1.3145/60 could trigger further bullish correction but any upside pullback now is normal and as long as stays below 1.3281 I still prefer a bearish intraday scenario at this phase with sell on rallies strategy as a part of the bearish scenario since formed a double top formation around 1.3520/30 and the break below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below.

Daily Forecast for Crosses: December 27

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EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive last week. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Price has been consolidating since the break below 102.48 but as long as stays below that area my overall intraday bias remains to the downside still testing 100.74 – 100.00 support area. On the upside, a clear break and daily movement back above 102.48 could lead us to a bullish correction phase testing 104.00/95 and the trend line resistance (white).

GBPJPY  Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher last week, but closed lower at 121.69 after found a good resistance around 122.62. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as stays below 122.62 my overall intraday technical bias remains to the downside and I still prefer to sell on rallies still testing 119.35. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 122.62 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 124.00 – 125.50 as the double bottom bullish reversal scenario might regain its momentum.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bullish momentum last week, moving above 1.0080 and now testing the upper line of the triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing the upper line of the triangle and 1.0250 resistance area. I still prefer a bearish reversal scenario after hit the record high five months ago but a clear break above the triangle would cancel the bearish scenario and keep the bullish bias remains strong. On the downside, we need a clear break at least below 1.0080 to keep price in consolidation phase testing the lower line of the triangle and give another chance for the bearish reversal scenario. Australian banks still close for holiday.