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US markets saw a dismal oscillation around the water line only to close slightly in negative territory. Going to the open of Japan we saw a sudden spike among the currencies in Wellington trade though the lack of liquidity appears to have tempered the move as we point to the announced agreement between Germany and France for a second bailout of Greece. Details of this however are yet to be seen. Ahead in the day markets key focus would likely be the EU Summit which is seena as a make of break for Greece’s debt problem.

USDJPY
Res: 78.91/79.09/79.26
Sup: 78.50/78.18/77.97
After a very quiet start for the week we now have USDJPY beginning to move closing Wednesday just around the congestion floor after a whippy trade that saw us testing range play highs and lows. Daily indicators show macd and stochastic heading lower. In 4H charts we have a confluence of bears while hourly indicators are also showing a new confluence of bears. We do not expect to see huge ranges though we consider the 78.91 region as a sell area for a test of 78.50 possibly a bigger sell-off down to historical lows.

NZDUSD
Res: 0.8586/0.8619/0.8678
Sup: 0.8555/0.8527/0.8505
Following a spike in Wellington trade Kiwi managed to see a slightly bigger daily range though still well under the daily averages. Indicators show stochastic flat in over bought levels for the past week while macd continue to rise. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals as macd remain flat in both hourly and 4H charts while stochastic in the former is dropping even as 4H stochastic is bullish. We prefer buys from just above the 0.8527 support level.

GBPUSD
Res: 1.6193/1.6249/1.6326
Sup: 1.6112/1.6071/1.6013
We appear to have developed a broadening pattern in the daily charts over the last 4 weeks, even as we see prices just under strong resistances at 1.6193. Daily indicators continue to see buy signals with stochastic reentering overbought levels along with a bullish macd. Intraday we are also seeing a bullish setup with 4H charts and hourly indicators showing similar bullish configurations. We appear to have growing upside pressure in Cable a close above 1.6193 on a daily basis could spark the next up leg. An intraday break may also be seen as bullish though with more limited upside.

EURUSD
Res: 1.4275(81)/1.4366/1.4407
Sup: 1.4209/1.4172/1.4133
Following a spike in Wellington trade Euro ended up inside the daily EMA lines with indicators showinga confluence of buys between macd and stochastic while the body of our daily candle is getting taller. From the 4H picture we have stochastic reentering overbought levels while macd is rising. In hourly charts stochastic has been crisscrossing the 80 level while macd is rising to suggest a good uptrend. Immediate risk appears to call for a break of the strong resistance at 1.4281 for 1.4366. Note we have an EU summit and the possibility of getting details for a second Greek bailout.

AUDUSD
Res: 1.0787/1.0832/1.0888
Sup: 1.0734/1.0710/1.6058
We are just under the strong resistance at 1.0787 despite seeing a limited bullish candle Wednesday. Daily indicators continue to see a confluence of buys from macd and stochastic. Intraday charts are mixed with 4H indicators showing a confluence of buys while from the hourly picture we have stochastic just coming off overbought levels and macd’s poised to open lower. Given the mixed intraday indicators we suggest a support and resistance play. Consider buys from just above 1.0710 or sells from just under 1.0787 with tight stops following the said levels at both sides.

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NZDUSD
Res: 0.7936/0.7973/0.8004
Sup: 0.7890/0.7860/0.7831
Following the push back up inside the previous weeks trading range we have NZDUSD closing with a spinning top in the daily charts while stochastic is pushing for overbought levels and macd bottoming out. From the 4H picture we have a new confluence of buys with stochastic just crossing up to join a bullish macd. Hourly indicators are mixed as macd come out of overbought levels. Given we have reentered a previous trading range we prefer playing within its boundaries look for buys from just above 0.7890 for a test of 0.7936 then on to key resistances at 0.7973.

AUDUSD
Res: 1.0672/1.0714/1.0748
Sup: 1.0632/1.0580/1.0538
We find AUDUSD just under the 21D EMA with Thursday’s attempts at pushing any higher thwarted. Among the indicators AUDUSD is actually inside the EMA lines while stochastic is pushing for overbought levels and macd bottoming out. In intraday charts we have a confluence of buys from the 4H macd and stochastic while hourly indicators see macd topping off and stochastic coming out of over bought levels. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though a dip to the 1.0580 region may be considered as a buy.

USDJPY
Res: 81.83/82.28/82.72
Sup: 81.50/81.02/80.71
Despite an intraday foray above the 55D EMA line we closed inside the daily EMA with a high wave spinning top. Daily stochastic is now crossing lower though the macd remains bullish. From the 4H picture we have macd topping off while stochastic is heading for oversold levels. Hourly indicators see a confluence of bears with stochastic coming off overbought areas. Immediate risk appears to be for a pullback break of 81.50 triggers an SHS though given the pattern of higher highs and higher lows, we prefer looking for the latter as a buy area.

GBPUSD
Res: 1.6238/1.6271/1.6323
Sup: 1.6191/1.6138/1.6085
Thursday saw a bullish close for Cable though prices are inside the previous days range. Daily indicators are mixed with stochastic going up and macd heading lower in line with the EMAs acting a a top. In 4H charts the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is even more evident as we see prices in the EMA lines though indicator show an overbought stochastic and bullish macd. Hourly indicators show macd topping off while stochastic comes out of overbought levels. For now we think of GBPUSD as in a range play consider shorts from just under 1.6238 for 1.6194 possibly 1.6138.

EURUSD
Res: 1.4325/1.4357(67)/1.4424
Sup: 1.4286/1.4228/1.4194
Thursday’s close managed to invalidate the prior spinning top suggesting further gains are to be expected though we have strong resistances around the daily EMA levels. Daily stochastic is overbought while macd is pushing higher. Intraday we see a confluence of buys from the 4H macd and stochastic while hourly charts see stochastic coming out of overbought levels while macd is topping off. Note we continue to have a series of higher lows and higher highs in the hourly with a big enough room before the daily EMA’s at 1.4357(67). Consider a buy on dips approach from the 1.4254 and 1.4286 region.

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EURJPY
Res: 116.89/117.61/118.54
Sup: 116.47/116.07/115.50
We have a bullish engulfing pattern from the daily candles while stochastic has come out of oversold levels, macd is still heading lower. Intraday we have an overbought stochastic from the 4H charts along with a rising macd. Hourly indicators are mixed with macd’s rising and stochastic coming out of overbought. We appear to have risk appetite across the board consider buys on any dip in EURJPY or use a break of the 116.89 area as a possible entry point for a run to 117.61.

GBPUSD
Res: 1.6418/1.6459/1.5616
Sup: 1.6359/1.6331/1.6294
Our morning star from the daily charts remain in effect despite yesterdays black candle. Daily stochastic has come out of oversold levels while macd is dropping. Looking at intraday charts we have a confluence of buys from the 4H picture with macd bottoming out while stochastic is rising. Hourly charts are mixed with macd rising and stochastic dropping. Given the overall picture risk appetite should see GBPUSD bouncing further consider buys from just above 1.6359 though we may have limited upside. Look for a test of the 1.6418 region.

EURUSD
Res: 1.4441/1.4516/1.4585
Sup: 1.4374/1.4327/1.4286
After Monday’s spinning latest daily candle is a hammer with a long tail further suggestion that we look for a turn-around. From the indicators we have stochastic coming out of oversold levels while macd is heading lower. Intraday we have 4H charts with a confluence of buys, stochastic pushing to overbought levels. Hourly indicators are mixed with macd rising but stochastic is heading for oversold territory. Looking at hourly candles there appears to be risk for a slight pullback, consider buys from 1.4374 region for a test of the 1.4441.

USDCAD
Res: 0.9603/0.9651/0.9709
Sup: 0.9547/0.9518/0.9483
Tuesday saw a bearish close for USDCAD with daily macd topping off and stochastic heading lower as prices push back under bearish EMA lines. From the big picture notice the failure to see a higher high in the prior week opening the possibility of another run for swing lows. Intraday we have a confluence of bears from the 4H charts while hourly stochastic is coming off oversold levels. We prefer looking for a sell on rallies, a rejection from 0.9603, given chinese data wait for 0200GMT.

NZDUSD
Res: 0.7971/0.8002/0.8061
Sup: 0.7907/0.7882/0.7856
Kiwi has been playing a modest range trade for the last week with daily stochastic rising and macd’s heading lower. Note we have daily EMA’s actually suggesting a bullish market. In 4H charts we have a confluence of buys from macd and stochastic, hourly indicators has stochastic dropping with macd topping off. For now we prefer remaining sidelined ahead of chinese releases, note a buy dips from the 0.7907 region would be nice.

AUDUSD
Res: 1.0877/1.0926/1.0979
Sup: 1.0833/1.0805/1.0874
We are continuing Friday’s bounce from the 34D EMA with daily stochastic now in overbought levels while macd is bottoming out. Note we have China data coming out at 0200GMT, it would best to wait for these first before taking action. Intraday we appear to have stochastic overbought in 4H and hourly charts with macd’s also rising in both time frames. Immediate risk is for further gains though we prefer remaining sidelined for now. Consider a buy on dips, note strong Chinese data, excluding inflation, would likely have a bullish impact for Aussy.

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European markets will be facing a weak start following losses in Asia amid fears of a global slowdown. The PBoC Vice Governor Gang is pointing to the success of efforts to curb Chinese inflation saying this will moderate in the second half of the year as tightening efforts begin to be felt while there is talk of extending efforts to limit property speculation to third and fourth-tier cities. Given all this currencies have started off on a risk averse footing in Asia with an early sell-off for the Euro, Cable, and Aussy though we have yet to see the single currency managing to close under its 1.4767 support. Despite strong numbers from Australia, the Services Index back above the boom/bust line at 51.5 and month-on-month New Home Sales at 4.3% AUDUSD remains weighed with precious metals and base metals pulling back. Going forward of interest among the currencies will likely be the Pound Sterling with GBPUSD seeing little action thus far though already seeing poor results. House Price Index numbers from Nationwide Plc has turned out in contraction at -0.2% against a 0.3% consensus forecasts, while we have coming up Construction PMI data at 0830GMT consensus calling for a 55.6 read though there is talk of possibly weaker numbers following yesterday?s disappointment from the CIPS Manufacturing Index.