Archive for the 'Trader’s Mindset' Category

Cogent Trading Biases

About Me
My Articles

AVOID THEM LIKE A PLAGUE

“Traders tend to believe that a method should be working in all market conditions at all times. When the method doesn’t produce consistent results, the blame usually falls on the method or on the trader (in most cases, the trader blames the method). From there, comes the whole back testing and tweaking process in a tireless attempt to perfect/optimize the method. With each tweak comes a success period and subsequent failure, the trader eventually will conclude the invalidity of the method and move onto another method. This continues until the trader eventually blows out or gives up. This should sound familiar to you because it happens to everyone.” – Jea Yu

Hello:

Regrettably, profitable trading is an endeavor that goes against human nature, mainly because of these annoying flaws called emotions. Fear and greed compose the actions of the market. You’d need to overcome the wrong trading biases mentioned below if you want to be a permanently victorious trader.

1. People hate losses. In fact, they dread losses more than they cherish returns. They prefer to cut their profits quickly if they’re right and hold onto losers. They feel that a trade in a plus territory may go to a minus territory if they don’t cut it, while thinking that a trade in a minus territory would eventually come back to a plus territory. Some pairs go in our favor by 40 to 50 pips and we truncate them and instead give enough room for losers. This is likened to watering the weeds and uprooting flowers. We tend to be conservative with profits and risky with losses. This would ultimately lead to unwanted results. Please let your winners run.

2. Traders tend to put more emphasis on the last losing streak they went thru more than the last winning streak they went thru. For instance, if a market speculator is using a certain strategy for playing the markets. If the strategy goes thru a period of losses – something normal for all trading strategies under heaven – the market speculator would be more saddened by the last period of losses without remembering a period of winnings she/he had with the strategy in the past. When using a good strategy, we tend to be subjective rather than objective. Because of the past losing period, the market speculator may change her/his trading rules or disregard the subsequent signals generated by the strategy. This would have adverse effect on the strategy results and the general performance of the market speculator. You make no mistake if you lose; you only make a mistake if you don’t follow your trading rules.

3. Traders tend to follow only viewpoints and convictions that tend to support their wrong trading biases. For instance, loss trades that turned positive in the past would reinforce our decision to hold onto losers. The past loss trades that didn’t turn positive would merely be ‘an exception.’ This is detrimental to our long-term survival in the markets, for we tend to ignore warning signs from erroneous trading decisions; making us to be futilely and adamantly optimistic when running losing trades indefinitely.

4. We tend to praise our adeptness when we gain money from the markets, but we blame other people or the markets when we sustain losses from the markets. This is something that can lead to egotistic tendency, thus failing to objectively evaluate the factual reasons behind our success and failure in the markets. There can’t be improvement if you blame others for your problems. You’d need to stop blaming others and take your destiny into your own hands. You need to conquer yourself before you can conquer the markets. Nothing can stop you from improving your trading career if you accept responsibility for your failure and start working towards success. If it’s going to be, it’s up to you.

5. Excessive expectations and recklessness are rampant in the trading world. We tend to overestimate our ability, forgetting that we’re only human. We think we can achieve more positive trading results than we can realistically do. It’s illusory to think we can predict the future movements in the markets. It’s illusory to think that we can control the markets. It’s fallacious to think that we’re superior to other traders or can perform better than them. It’s fallacious to think we can predetermine the amount of profit we want to make on daily, weekly or monthly basis. This is one reason why many traders use big position sizes to attain big profits in a short period of time. They use high risk because they feel they can control the markets and they think the next trades they want to open must go in their forecasted direction. As pleasant as illusions are, they have one disadvantage: They tend to burst like a bubble.

An argument in favor of these biases is that they’re largely what most humans are prone to do and that it’s still possible to make money with them. Although this kind of argument might seem plausible, in reality, it isn’t true. You can only make significant improvement in your trading when you understand these biases and avoid them like a plague.

I’d like to conclude this article with more quotes from Jea Yu:

A. “Some of the most successful traders I know blew out their earlier accounts first. It’s almost a rite of passage amongst the old school traders. The pain and agony they suffered is a constant reminder of what they did wrong. It forced them to reevaluate and re assemble their methods. It allowed them to identify when a bad situation is forming and they are wise enough now to avoid it. I remember reading an interview with a successful fund manager who claimed his success was based on making ‘every’ mistake possible enough times to know not to make them again. Traders don’t have to go this route any more.”

B. “Please note that I am referring to the trading conditions, not the market index gains or losses. A strong or weak market is irrelevant to a trader. A tradeable environment is composed of follow through, trading channels and liquidity. Don’t mistake a market being up huge or down huge as a tradeable market. Sometimes they do overlap but not always. The best litmus test is to take your best setups and see if they play out. If they fail back to back to back, then it tells you the market environment is not fertile. Don’t punish yourself for this. It’s not your fault. The only actions you need to take are to preserve your capital and your confidence levels which means quit for the day.”

NB: Please watch out for my coming articles with these titles: ‘Traits of Successful Traders,’ ‘How the MACD Generates Good Trading Signals,’ ‘A News Trading Strategy,’ ‘Analyze the Markets with the Aroon Indicator,’ ‘A Brief Introduction to Point and Figure Charts,’ ‘Does High Hit Rate Work Always?’ ‘My Typical Trading Day,’ ‘A Trader’s Trick Entry Technique – Sighting Golden Trading Opportunities ,’ ‘Making Money Out of Losses – A Blessing in Disguise,’ ‘Achieve a Better Hit Rate with Gap Trading (Using the Logic Yourself),’ ‘Play the Markets Victoriously with Nano-cent Accounts,’ ‘Why It’s Difficult to Do the Right Things in the Markets,’ ‘How to Identify a Sideways Market – Be Safe!’ ‘A Negative Expectancy System – Pushing Against the Wind?’ ‘Trading Signals,’ ‘An Intraday Moves Catcher – A Wealth Generating System,’ ‘Unlock the Power of Everlasting Triumph in the Markets (Parts 2 – 12),’ ‘How to Handle Uncertainties in the Markets,’ ‘The Issue of Stops (Come Back! Oh Come Back!),’ ‘A Hedge Funds Strategy,’ ‘My Hedge Funds Strategy Update,’ ‘Experiment with Different Exit Tactics,’ ‘Mastering the Market Equilibrium Zones – A Time-sensitive Method,’ ‘How I Apply Risk Management – Part 3,’ ‘A Simple Positive Expectancy System – Trading Effortlessly,’ ‘Testimonies from My Subscribers (2),’ ‘Best-case Scenarios – The Beauty of Trading,’ ‘Effective Swing Trading in Forex,’ ‘Gap Trading Revisited,’ ‘3 Recent Gap Trades,’ ‘Developing the Right Attitude towards Losses – Part 4 (Losses Aren’t Abnormal) ,’ ‘The True Holy Grail – The Long Sought for,’ ‘Forex Trading Vocabulary,’ ‘ Clarifying Some Issues – Part 6,’ ‘Navigating Turbulent Markets – A Double Timeframe Analysis,’ ‘Before You Open that Trade,’ ‘Cogent Trading Biases,’ ‘Overview of My Signals Strategies – Can You Become a Super Trader?’ ‘Winning Trades, Losing Trades,’ ‘The Cost of Discipline,’ ‘Monthly Market Review,’ ‘Uncertainty Has Become My Ally – An Interview with a Dogged Market Speculator,’ ‘I Can’t Express How Grateful I’m to You!’ ‘Yearly Trading Update (2012) – The Big Picture,’ ‘What We’ve Decided to Do in the Markets – Trend Following It Is!’ ‘Annual Trading Results (2012),’ ‘Monthly Trading Report (December 2011),’ etc.

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha
Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

Get my Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

If you want my coming trading articles delivered directly into your inbox (I don’t support spamming in any way), you can send me an email titled “Request for Trading Articles.”

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

 

 

Weekly Trading Update (February 17, 2012)

About Me
My Articles

“The successful trader has an intimate understanding about the importance of emotional intelligence, i.e., managing emotional volatility through protocols, routines and habits. They focus on doing the “right” things habitually (following trading plans, rules, money management and position sizing) as if their life depended upon it…and their trading life does depend upon it. In this way, they set themselves up to get the right results habitually. They know that consistent successful execution is intimately related to mastering the right things. This represents the development of a “positive trading trance.” – Dr. Woody Johnson

Hello:

Trading is a living. It’s a way of life. It’s something you do for as long as you like, as it got no age of retirement. The older and the more experienced you’re as a trader, the wiser you become. Here’s a caption. 106 years Old Irving Khan Is Still Investing: Irving Khan, who turned 106 years old on December 19, 2011, has been working on Wall Street since 1928 and he’s still investing his money today. The value investor told CNN Money he doesn’t watch stock market all that closely even though he’s a Bloomberg Terminal on his desk. That’s because he follows the 20 stocks that he currently holds. Khan, who didn’t always have Bloomberg Terminal or a cell phone, has seen a lot of changes besides the technological ones during his days on Wall Street. “Well when I got to the Street in ‘28/’29 it was much more of a rich man’s game – not that I was rich, but I mean it was designated for banks, insurance companies, railroads or public utilities,” he said in an interview. “It’s no longer a rich man’s business. It’s a business for everybody.” How many people get paid to do what they absolutely love? Those who love trading and are serious enough to learn the principles that work would be paid by the markets. Active trading has become a world-renowned industry. What once was a business on Wall Street has become a personal business for market traders around the world. New products are being introduced and more are sure to come. A structured business plan with references to time frame, asset class, trading strategy, risk management, and position size increases the likelihood that traders will adapt and evolve with the markets.

Below is the summary of some of my trading activities this week.

AUDUSD
Primary Trend: Bullish
The bullish trend on this pair, though losing its strength, is still valid. One way of handling this kind of situation is to buy on a dip. However, if the price should happen to break the support level at 1.0620, it may lead to a renewed bearish steam.

NZDUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
Simple directional analyses shouldn’t be obfuscated on this pair. There’s has been a sharp sell-off in the context of an uptrend. The present bearish pressure must continue before it can threaten our bullish outlook; otherwise we might buy at a great support. In general there are corrections of these movements.

AUDNZD
Primary trend: Bearish
Resistance levels have been broken on this pair (the culprit being the rally that happened on Wednesday). The SMA 50 is still below the SMA 200, but the price has moved above the former. The RSI 14 has moved clearly above the level 50, pointing to a significant northward outbreak. The Stochastic 14,3,5 is sprinting towards the overbought area. This could be an opportunity to sell high in a bearish situation. If that fails, then it’s the return of the bulls.

EURCAD
Primary trend: Bullish
Is there a modicum of reliability in the signals generated by this cross? One sold and the price shot up; only for the price to nosedive after the previous order was smoothed and a bullish stance was assumed. The outlook is still northward, and the price has fallen sharply. I’m looking for a short sale opportunity. Waiting for the prefect setup to form can be frustrating and boring, with pressure to open a position pushing you to get in.

EURNZD
Primary trend: Bearish
Since February 10, the price has fallen by over 400 pips, found support at 1.5580, and has rallied by more than 160 pips since Wednesday. The SMA 50 still stays below the SMA 200 while the price remains below the former. The ADX 20 is above the level 30 – showing strong movements. -DI is above the +DI. It makes sense to go short.

GBPCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
The present rally on this instrument has posed a formidable threat to the bearish outlook. If the present straight buying continues for a few more days, then the bears’ prospects would be jeopardized. With a sizable amount in your portfolio and a move in the right direction, who knows whether you may earn enough money to get a Toyota jeep? But what if you’re a tenant and after pulling up your jeep, and subsequently your landlord/landlady announces that the house rent has been increased?

Conclusion: Position sizing is critical for traders as frequency increases; the risk of ruin also increases. Remember: traders are risk managers. You plan your trade religiously. Consequently you place an order and a protecting stop to cut possible losses. You think that there’s nothing more you can do – now it depends on the currency market god, if he likes your trading idea, doesn’t it? No! What follows now accompany your work as a trader in general and in particular. Thank you for your interest in my weekly trading updates and good trading everyone!

I’d like to conclude this article with quotes from Dr. Van K. Tharp:

1. “Many of you have heard me say that it requires just as much work to become a good trader as it does to become proficient at any other profession. For example, opening an account with a broker without doing the preparatory work is a little like walking off the street and into a hospital to perform brain surgery. With little preparation, your patient probably would die from that surgery. Likewise, your brokerage account is likely to expire if you trade it without the appropriate education. Perhaps you’ve had an experience of your account dying? The proper preparatory work to trade is a significant task.”

2. “Facing who you are and working on yourself is probably the hardest thing for most people to do. But the rewards of doing so (on your trading, your life, and your happiness) are immense.”

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha

Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

Get my Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

If you want my coming trading articles delivered directly into your inbox (I don’t support spamming in any way), you can send me an email titled “Request for Trading Articles.”

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

 

Annual Trading Results (2011)

About Me
My Articles

I WAS PERFECTING MY TRADING SKILL

“Do you see a man skilled in his work? He will serve before kings; he will not serve before obscure men.” – Proverbs 22:29

“Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

Hello:

Can you bend a bow of bronze? Are your arms trained for battles? In other words, can you pull the triggers in the markets? Are you able to defend your portfolios in bad market conditions? Here are my trading results in the year 2011. As I said earlier, the last year was a difficult one but a good trader should know how to make money in good and bad markets. I gained a minimum of 9,800 pips with my Gap Trading Strategy (thus gaining about 49% profit from that) and a minimum of 2,178 pips from my Non-directional Strategy (thus gaining about 10.89% profit from it). This is a combination of 11,978 pips and a total growth of 59.89%. Please note that my trading results on demo and live accounts are similar; only position sizes are different.

Considering the amount of pips I made last year:
If I used 0.01 lots per pip then my profit would be $1,197.8
If I used 0.1 lots per pip my profit would be $$11,978
If I used 1.0 lots per pip my profit would be $119,780
If I used 10 lots per pip my profit would be $1,197,800
All these are only approximate figures. My position sizing depends on the amount of an individual portfolio. This year, I expect to outperform the last year’s figure in terms of pips. By signing up for my trading signals, you can see how I trade and do so accordingly. You may get my access to those accounts and Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

Remember that like any trader under heaven, I’m subject to the uncertainties of the markets. I experience many losses as well, only that I’ve learned how to control those losses no matter how many they are. Some people refer to their trading systems as being magical. Quite to the contrary, you will need to take decisions based on partial knowledge and probabilities, not certainties. Trading is a personal journey with different levels of development. It’s never too late to start again and trade your way to financial freedom.

I Was Perfecting My Trading Skill
While some were busy discouraging people from going into Forex, spreading myths and lies about the markets, I was perfecting my trading skill. While many people were busy looking for the Golden Goose strategy (they asked for the Holy Grail but they were given a mare’s nest), I was perfecting my trading skill. While some fans were busy hailing their stars and heroes with inordinate enthusiasm (hero worship) without thinking of how they themselves could be hailed, I was perfecting my trading skill. Some were busy blaming generational curses. Some were blaming their spouse or parents or children or the markets for their unpleasant experiences. They were blaming their enemies, witches and demons for their problems – whereas I was perfecting my trading skill.

While some kept blowing their account out of greed, using big position sizing because they couldn’t just see why they must use small position sizing, I was perfecting my trading skill. While some people were waiting for miracles and doing nothing, praying for breakthrough, but doing nothing; having their heads in the clouds, but doing nothing, I was perfecting my trading skill. While some people were busy begging for money, relying on some friends and family members or unknown persons to feed them and carry their financial burden, I was perfecting my trading skill

While some were expecting their politicians to pay their bills and put food on their table, they were expecting to be fed from the public treasury. While some people were busy blaming their government for their calamities, pointing accusing fingers at their politicians for the economic woes befouling their nation, I was perfecting my trading skill. While some were busy wasting their time as con and scam artists, proposing bogus and spurious deals, announcing fake lottery wins, devising ways to swindle people out of their hard-earned money, telling all sorts of lies, committing various Internet crimes, I was perfecting my trading skill. While some were busy imperiling people with email extractors, phishing email, spy software and Trojan horse, I was perfecting my trading skill. While some believed that the only way to get out of poverty was to engage in illegal activities and become criminals, I was perfecting my trading skill. While some were committing themselves to armed robbery, pilfering or shoplifting – I was perfecting my trading skill.

Innumerable people are lamenting the ever rising waves of unemployment in their country. In one land, the number of the unemployed is increasing by over 4.5 million per year. Some were begging for jobs, and some had put their destiny into the hands of their employers. While some had accepted that they were destined to be indigent because they tried many times and failed, because they tried their best in life but failed and because they struggled but didn’t succeed, I was perfecting my trading skill. The assassination of motivation is procrastination. Certain people were busy postponing the day they would start training for trading. They might choose a date that was 6 months away. When the day arrived, they’d choose another day that was 2 years away; yet I was perfecting my trading skill. While some were busy nursing hatred and resentment because the truth about trading is constantly revealed, I was perfecting my trading skill.

While some find it difficult to decide what to do with their life and while some see university degrees as the open sesame to riches, I was perfecting my trading skills.
Your PhD doesn’t make you the greatest man in the world. Certain people seem to think erroneously that the automatic solution to their problems is their college degrees. Some don’t even know what they could do with their life: they do something only because many people are doing it. They go to the university because many people are going there. They seem to be at the university because they couldn’t do anything else or don’t know what else to do. Everything seems to be alright as long as daddy or government is paying. Why do so many people want to become accountants? People think life is just as simple as getting great degrees and getting great jobs and getting married and living happily ever after. For them, I realized it’s not about getting very rich, it’s to enable them to do ‘safe and respectable’ professions that perhaps mildly impress their parents and other people. However, I was perfecting my trading skill. While some were dabbling from one business to another, rushing into one venture and quitting after facing challenges, I was perfecting my trading skill.

Life itself is a zero sum game. When would you start doing what really needs to be done rather than doing what people want you to do? Are you fascinated by what you wanted to hear or the blatant truth? I remained a failure for as long as I was listening to what I wanted to hear. I experienced breakthrough only when I started to follow what I didn’t want to hear. “I’ve been lucky enough to be involved in a number of other ‘cool’ careers, but nothing has satisfied that need within my soul for a meaningful existence like being a trader does,” writes Lance Beggs, a profitable trader. Trading is dynamic. Trading is fantastic. Trading is salubriously stimulating. Trading is liberating. Trading is wonderful, intriguing and rewarding.

Last but not the least, FXInstructor.com wants you to have the greatest success in trading the Forex currency markets. They look forward to helping you to learn and grow your skills as you trade this huge, but extremely volatile, Forex market. During these turbulent times, they’ll be at your service through market forecasts, webinars, trading rooms, blog articles, support services, free educational tools, trading signals and many more. They want to help you make good trading choices. And, if needed for special help, they’re also available via e-mail. They look forward to your capitalizing on their services.

I conclude this article with quotes from Rob Booker:

1. “There is a myth in American culture, and it’s spreading around the world: your job should be fun. You should enjoy what you do for a living. “Do what you love and the money will follow.” And so on. Perhaps we’ve had too strong of a dose of this doctrine. The truth is that although we are better off choosing a career that interests us, we’re going to be bored at work if we learn our job really well. The promise is simple: if you become a world-class Forex trader, at some point your job will be ho-hum. Not all the time, but it’s not going to be an adventure every day of the week. Sorry.”

2. “Once you discover a set of true principles, they’ll do you no good if you disregard them. I’ve met Forex traders that understood many, many true principles, but they were still dumb as a bag of hammers and poor as church mice because they failed to obey them.”

3. “You can succeed in the Forex market. As a day trader, you can be paid more handsomely than doctors, lawyers, and just about everyone else. But if you want to be a member of the elite class of highly successful Forex traders, then you have to put the time in. You can’t expect profits to come easily. Successful Forex trading will offer you more time, more money – and more stress – than you have probably ever experienced. But you can do it. Success is not about your IQ – it’s about your work ethic and your discipline.”

NB: Please watch out for my coming articles with these titles: ‘Traits of Successful Traders,’ ‘How the MACD Generates Good Trading Signals,’ ‘A News Trading Strategy,’ ‘Analyze the Markets with the Aroon Indicator,’ ‘A Brief Introduction to Point and Figure Charts,’ ‘Does High Hit Rate Work Always?’ ‘My Typical Trading Day,’ ‘A Trader’s Trick Entry Technique – Sighting Golden Trading Opportunities,’ ‘Making Money out of Losses – A Blessing in Disguise,’ ‘Achieve a Better Hit Rate with Gap Trading (Using the Logic Yourself),’ ‘Play the Markets Victoriously with Nano-cent Accounts,’ ‘Why It’s Difficult to Do the Right Things in the Markets,’ ‘How to Identify a Sideways Market – Be Safe!’ ‘A Negative Expectancy System – Pushing Against the Wind?’ ‘Trading Signals,’ ‘An Intraday Moves Catcher – A Wealth Generating System,’ ‘Unlock the Power of Everlasting Triumph in the Markets (Parts 2 – 12),’ ‘How to Handle Uncertainties in the Markets,’ ‘The Issue of Stops (Come Back! Oh Come Back!),’ ‘A Hedge Funds Strategy,’ ‘My Hedge Funds Strategy Update,’ ‘Experiment with Different Exit Tactics,’ ‘Mastering the Market Equilibrium Zones – A Time-sensitive Method,’ ‘How I Apply Risk Management – Part 3,’ ‘A Simple Positive Expectancy System – Trading Effortlessly,’ ‘Testimonies from My Subscribers (2),’ ‘Resist the Lure of High Risk – Part 4’ ‘Best-case Scenarios – The Beauty of Trading,’ ‘Effective Swing Trading in Forex,’ ‘Gap Trading Revisited,’ ‘3 Recent Gap Trades,’ ‘Developing the Right Attitude towards Losses – Part 4 (Losses Aren’t Abnormal) ,’ ‘The True Holy Grail – The Long Sought for,’ ‘Forex Trading Vocabulary,’ ‘ Clarifying Some Issues – Part 6,’ ‘Navigating Turbulent Markets – A Double Timeframe Analysis,’ ‘Before You Open that Trade,’ ‘Cogent Trading Biases,’ ‘Overview of My Signals Strategies – Can You Become a Super Trader?’ ‘Winning Trades, Losing Trades,’ ‘The Cost of Discipline,’ ‘Monthly Market Review,’ ‘Uncertainty Has Become My Ally – An Interview with a Dogged Market Speculator,’ ‘I Can’t Express How Grateful I’m to You!’ ‘Yearly Trading Update (2012) – The Big Picture,’ ‘What We’ve Decided to Do in the Markets – Trend Following It Is!’ ‘Yearly Trading Results (2012) – I Was Perfecting My Trading Skill,’ ‘Monthly Trading Report (December 2011),’ etc.

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha
Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

Get my Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

If you want my coming trading articles delivered directly into your inbox (I don’t support spamming in any way), you can send me an email titled “Request for Trading Articles.”

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

 

Weekly Trading Update (February 10, 2012)

About Me
My Articles

“As a trader, I prefer less trading opportunities with better probabilities, not the other way around… In the meantime, keep it simple and the losses small.”– Sam Evans

Hello:

Successful traders live by the rule to keep their losses small. On special occasions though and given the right market opportunity, bulls and bears still convinced a turn for the better is near, might look to repair those losses at no or very little costs, and drastically improve their odds of getting back even. For many traders, it’s difficult to admit losing trades and close them out early. This can lead to stops continuing to be activated until they move into the loss area and to the position increasingly spiraling out of control. And we all know how this may well end if worst comes to worst. The end result will be total loss of one’s trading capital. Many traders account histories bear this out. This phenomenon isn’t only true of trading – after all, it’s only human to dislike implementing measures that have adverse effect. We want to avoid the negative the best we can or at least suppress it. By the same token, acting according to those principles isn’t a rational and sensible decision – except in rarest cases. Clearly the bottom line is: make sure you always exit while losses are small, a lesson which applies not only to trading.

Below is the summary of some of my trading activities this week.

AUDUSD
Primary Trend: Bullish
The best thing to do in this uptrend remains buying low. The price moves up, hits a resistance level, pulls back, before moving higher than the previous resistance level. A long trade that was executed is still open and the position now has 76-pip profit.

NZDUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The outlook and trading approach for this pair is quite similar to that of its AUDUSD counterpart. It should be noted that the NZDUSD moves slower than its aforementioned counterpart; its moves are slow but steady. Many speculative methods can be used to take advantage of this pair. All of these methods need to be determined independently of the underlying trend. The real trend is determined in the context of the present underlying. For example, an instrument can reverse to a downtrend after a strong uptrend and still quote above the 200-day MA. The traditional market indicator ‘instruments over 200-day MA’ would register this positively although the trend is already down.

AUDNZD
Primary trend: Bearish
My current short trade here is still negative by -32 pips; though my maximum possible loss on it is 0.5% in a worst-case scenario on the trade. In the present context of a downtrend, this market is consolidating seriously. The SMA 50 is below the SMA 200, while the price is above and sideways over the former. The RSI 14 is slightly above the level 50, pointing to a mild rally. The Stochastic 14,3,5 is trudging towards the overbought area. If the price reaches the overbought region, it may signal a shorting opportunity. There’s a great possibility of a breakout in the direction of the overall trend.

EURCAD
Primary trend: Bullish
The successful bullish attempt that started early this week has overridden the bearish sell-off that occurred last Friday. On our preferred timeframe, there seems to be a head-and-shoulders pattern. Should this be taken serious? These days, head-and-shoulders patterns are less and less applicable to today’s markets. While they are still valid for company stocks, there is very little in the way of accumulation or distribution in the most heavily traded markets, such as stock indices, currencies, and interest-bearing instruments. The pattern is virtually worthless for intraday trading.

EURNZD
Primary trend: Bearish
The bullish attempt on the cross is still seems to hold, but the bearish bias is still valid. The bulls need to wield their power long enough before the trend can change significantly. The SMA 50 is far below the SMA 200 while the price stays above the former. The ADX 20 is just pointing around the level 10 – showing a market without steam. -DI is above the +DI, whereas it’s only slightly above it.

GBPCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
The resistance level at 1.4590 proved very effective. The bullish attempt on this instrument was rejected and the price nosedived – by over 180 pips. Is the price movement in your favor or are you caught in a wrong side? Watching your wallet would make a difference. You can make all the Forex winnings you want, and if you don’t have mental and actual ring fences around your capital and your trading habits you can lose it all plus a house in an afternoon.

Conclusion: While the difference between a good strategy and a duff strategy certainly separates some of the losers from the winners, the difference between effective execution and ineffective execution separates far more. What you need to do to survive as a trader has been constantly revealed – not some feel-good motivational buzz (the word that it’s easy to make consistent profits in trading rings hollow), but a dead-eyed ruthlessness about behavior that doesn’t help your trading, and a nimbleness about courage needed to take advantage of opportunities that do.

I’d like to conclude this article with a quote from a blogger at Elitetrader.com. It got to do with biased attitudes in human beings (something that militates against us in trading):

“Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn’t strive for perfection. It didn’t search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat.

…Meanwhile, the rats are still beating the Yale students.”

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha

Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

Get my Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

If you want my coming trading articles delivered directly into your inbox (I don’t support spamming in any way), you can send me an email titled “Request for Trading Articles.”

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

 

Worst Case Scenarios

About Me
My Articles

FACTS ARE SACRED

“Periods of drawdown occur in every strategy, accept this as fact and move on.” – Ryan Schofield

“There’ no such thing as the best trading strategy. For a successful trader it’s far more important to employ different trading strategies simultaneously. There are good and bad times for every strategy.” – Frank Hassler

Hello:

While using a strategy in the markets, if we want to be perfectionists and look for all the small pieces, we’ll be overwhelmed by information overload. The optimum way to trade the currency markets, making returns using a speculation method, is to first understand that the awaited results from each trade is random, but over a great number of trades the average profit for each trade would possibly be positive, i.e. trading currency mechanically is a game of randomness with a positive statistical expectancy. As a result, the trader is usually well off not reducing the amount of positions signaled by a particular method, for there’s no way to know in advance which orders would bring more profit.

Certainly, historical returns aren’t a guarantee of the future outcome and bear it in mind that during spectacular changes in the market movements, a technique may generate unwanted results. Even the pros sometimes run with the herd and may be wrong at extreme points. That’s why a trader would wisely decide on a small and safe position sizing and use stops to control risk.

Let’s learn some lessons from Mr. Frank. Please let’s check the information below and learn some lessons from it.

Frank Hassler’s Recent Trading Results:
2001: 58.5%
2002: 179.5%
2003: 81.1%
2004: 46.0%
2005: 25.9%
2006: 9.4%
2007: 85.4%
2008: -9.2%
2009: 113.7%
Number of trades: 422
Maximum drawdown: -42.77%
Hit rate: 55.45%

Lessons from the performance above: 1) It took Mr. Frank about 9 years to make hundreds of percentage. However, this is what most traders want to make in a few months. 2) Despite the fact that the performance above is contrary to the expectation of most traders, the track record is good. The strategy has survived many odds and uncertainties in the markets. 3) There was a very good year like the year 2002, but this didn’t make the trader become overconfident to the point of increasing his position sizing irrationally. 4) In the year 2006, Mr. Frank only made a profit of 9.4%. That year must be difficult, though some profit was still made – no matter how small. I may even be thankful for 5% profit per year. The safety of my account is the most important. A greedy trader who thought his own account was too small would’ve preferred 10% profit per day rather than close to 10% per year; which was made by Mr. Frank in the year 2006. But this could have resulted in 10% loss per day in a protracted losing streak. 5). There was a bad year like the year 2008 [though certain traders made profits]. While many traders received margin calls or suffered colossal reduction in their accounts, Mr. Frank didn’t go down more than -9.2%. This made it easier for him to recover the loss and gain over 100% in the following year. 6). Some greedy traders who hated to use small position sizing because they think their capital was too small would’ve abandoned their strategy for another one or even abandoned trading altogether, because a whole year’s labor showed an overall loss. They couldn’t imagine trading for a whole year without declaring a profit. Without a profit, they’d think trading wasn’t for them – irrespective of the fact that they made a profit in the past. Mr. Frank was thankful that he didn’t go down too much during his bad year. He was thankful for the past blessings and the future hopes. He knew that capital preservation is more important than profits. 7) Mr. Frank’s maximum drawdown was up to -42.45%: This means he’d periods of protracted losses and bad markets. Many a childish trader abandons a good signals generator because of a week or a month’s losses. Yet Mr. Frank wasn’t disheartened or nor did he curse trading or lost hope. He’s an overall winner – a survivor that wasn’t swallowed by the uncertainties of the markets.

In addition to the lessons mentioned above, an equity curve graph of a vigorously traded account was attached with this article. You can see the results of many winning trades and losing trades, plus how the pips that were gained outnumbered the pips that were lost. There were heavy losses, yet the account has moved up by roughly 40% in 8 months. No matter the strategy you use, losses are inevitable, but an astute trader would stick to his positive expectancy rules (These are constantly mentioned in my articles). This is a fact in trading; and facts are sacred. Your equity curve can’t go up in a straight line. It will be characterized by occasional dips – followed by a rise in the curve (provided that you’re using a positive expectancy system).

What was your worst case scenario? Was it 2% reduction in your account or 20% reduction? Was it 5% reduction in your account or 50% reduction? Was it 7% roll-down or 85% or even a margin call? How many times have you made substantial gains, only to suffer a huge roll-down because a particular market condition wasn’t favorable to your strategy? How many margin calls have you received? When would you get out of this?

Are You Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution?
We must recognize a key fact about our conscience, the inner voice that tells us whether our actions are right or wrong. Everyone has such inner voice… but it’s not necessarily trustworthy. One of the most erroneous trading thoughts is to expect that a foolproof trading system exists somewhere. Are you part of the problem or part of the solution? Those who tell people that trading is easy , depicting a particular system as the Golden Goose strategy, telling people that they need a very short training and telling them about the big profit they can make without risk control measures that work, are clearly part of the problem plaguing the trading world. Those who tell the truth about trading, showing the way out of the deadlock that would be encountered in this profession, depicting risk control as the key to survival and helping people reach their highest trading potential, are vividly a blessing to the trading world.

Are you part of the problem or part of the solution?

This article is concluded with some quotes from Bill Provenzano:

1. “If you perceive every movement of the market as an opportunity, you will drive yourself mad! It is only your High Probability Trades that are your legitimate trading opportunities.”

2. “You can’t change your past poor trading decisions, behaviors, or outcomes. But you can learn from them to help shape your future success. You can admit that you tend to think with skewed perceptions about outcomes that, in the end, are simply a functional part of your trading system and Trading Business Plan. When you understand that it is human nature to think in these counterfactual ways, you empower yourself to take control of these thoughts and dismiss them as skewed perception. The best part is you don’t have to wait four years… The next trading opportunity is just ahead.”

3. “A successful trading business is built upon the understanding that not every trade will be a winner. In fact, it is possible that a successful Trading Business Plan can include a set of High Probability Trades that either break-even or incur a small loss 50% of the time. And yes, some of those small losses will be generated by stops that are triggered to the tick. Many more of those losses, though, will be generated by market movement that goes significantly.”

NB: Please watch out for my coming articles with these titles: ‘Analyze the Markets with the Aroon Indicator,’ ‘A Brief Introduction to Point and Figure Charts,’ ‘Does High Hit Rate Work Always?’ ‘My Typical Trading Day,’ ‘A Trader’s Trick Entry Technique – Sighting Golden Trading Opportunities,’ ‘Making Money out of Losses – A Blessing in Disguise,’ ‘Achieve a Better Hit Rate with Gap Trading (Using the Logic Yourself),’ ‘Play the Markets Victoriously with Nano-cent Accounts,’ ‘Why It’s Difficult to Do the Right Things in the Markets,’ ‘How to Identify a Sideways Market – Be Safe!’ ‘A Negative Expectancy System – Pushing Against the Wind?’ ‘Trading Signals,’ ‘An Intraday Moves Catcher – A Wealth Generating System,’ ‘Unlock the Power of Everlasting Triumph in the Markets (Parts 2 – 12),’ ‘How to Handle Uncertainties in the Markets,’ ‘The Issue of Stops (Come Back! Oh Come Back!),’ ‘A Hedge Funds Strategy,’ ‘My Hedge Funds Strategy Update,’ ‘Experiment with Different Exit Tactics,’ ‘Mastering the Market Equilibrium Zones – A Time-sensitive Method,’ ‘How I Apply Risk Management – Part 3,’ ‘A Simple Positive Expectancy System – Trading Effortlessly,’ ‘Testimonies from My Subscribers (2),’ ‘Resist the Lure of High Risk – Part 4’ ‘Best-case Scenarios – The Beauty of Trading ,’ ‘Effective Swing Trading in Forex,’ ‘Gap Trading Revisited,’ ‘3 Recent Gap Trades,’ ‘Developing the Right Attitude towards Losses – Part 4 (Losses Aren’t Abnormal),’ ‘The True Holy Grail – The Long Sought for,’ ‘Forex Trading Vocabulary,’ ‘ Clarifying Some Issues – Part 6,’ ‘Navigating Turbulent Markets – A Double Timeframe Analysis,’ ‘Before You Open that Trade,’ ‘Cogent Trading Biases,’ ‘Overview of My Signals Strategies – Can You Become a Super Trader?’ ‘Winning Trades, Losing Trades,’ ‘Uncertainty Has Become My Ally – An Interview with a Dogged Market Speculator,’ ‘The Cost of Discipline,’ ‘Monthly Market Review,’ ‘I Can’t Express How Grateful I’m to You!’ ‘Yearly Trading Update (2012) – The Big Picture,’ ‘What We’ve Decided to Do in the Markets – Trend Following It Is!’ ‘Annual Trading Results (2011) – I Was Perfecting My Trading Skill,’ ‘Monthly Trading Report (December 2011),’ etc.

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha
Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

Get my Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

If you want my coming trading articles delivered directly into your inbox (I don’t support spamming in any way), you can send me an email titled “Request for Trading Articles.”

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

 

Weekly Trading Update (February 3, 2012)

About Me
My Articles

“The 1980s movie “Wall Street” coined the term “greed is good.” But things are different in real life. When trading the markets, if you focus only on making money, it ‘s very likely you will lose it all. When greed takes over, traders make huge mistakes, such as betting everything in one single trade, or not using any stop losses.” – Joe Ross

Hello:

This is an update on some of the movements in the markets and what I’m doing about them, plus my losses and profits. The analyses are based on 4-hour charts, looking at the overall price actions on the charts. My preferred leverage is 1:100 and my position size is 0.01 lots for each $2000 or 0.1 lots for each 20000 cents in a cent account (making it 0.5 lots for each 100000 cents). The risk per trade stands at 0.5%. The Stops are my insurance policy. For trading purposes, I’ve decided to do only trend-following; and only trend-following I’ll do. This kind of trading approach has stood the test of the time. I make my money somewhere in the middle of a trend. I open primary positions with a risk-to-reward of 1:2, riding the trend until the target is hit or I’m stopped out. The value of patience will forever be emphasized. As long as I stick to my rules and keep my risk low, I’m immune to fear.

Often, an instrument that has poor fundamentals will just go down and an instrument with good fundamentals will just go up. Technical levels are irrelevant in these situations, since no indicator is a complete trading system in its own right. In fact, after the period most indicators make it to the back tests, results seem to get disappointing very often and very fast. Based on fact, no set of indicators is a complete system either. Therefore successful trading needs careful safety rules and discipline.

Below is the summary of some of my trading activities this week.

 

AUDUSD

Primary Trend: Bullish

The best thing to do in this uptrend is to buy low, for the market is making higher highs and higher lows. A trade that I made in the beginning of this week has made only 128 pips. The trade is still open.

 

NZDUSD

Primary trend: Bullish

There are a series of higher highs and higher lows, just like the Aussie versus the Greenback. Once again, the buy-the-dip method is preferable. If one enters when the price is around the higher high formation, one could be stopped out before the market moves in the forecasted direction. Like an uptrend, a downtrend consists of corrections as well.

 

AUDNZD

Primary trend: Bearish

It’s clear that the AUD can’t withstand the strength of the NZD. The SMA 50 is below the SMA 200, while the price is going below the former. The RSI 14 is below the level 50, pointing to a bear market. The Stochastic 14,3,5 has long been pummeled in the oversold zone. This means one shouldn’t enter a new ‘sell’ order here, but one may enter should the indicator get to the overbought region.

 

EURCAD

Primary trend: Bearish

On this cross, the challenge to the bears’ authority is seriously contained. The bulls pushed the price as far as the level at 1.3240, but they were put in check. The price seems to be going back to that level, and unless it’s broken upwards, a new bear pressure might occur. This gives us an incentive to pass up less volatile currencies for riskier ones, especially in the midst of a raging bear market.

 

EURNZD

Primary trend: Bearish

Here, the bear market is very strong. The SMA 50 is far below the SMA 200 while the price is far below the former. The ADX 20 is just pointing above the level 30 – showing the possibility of a renewed bearish pressure. -DI is above the +DI. Going short is recommended here – something that could be done when the price rallies temporarily.

 

GBPCHF

Primary trend: Bearish

This cross seems to have found a support at 1.4340 prior to going up by over 200 pips. Things have stabilized a little. However, remember that the sentiment is bearish. Someone sold short this cross a few weeks ago. While driving on the following day, he checked his smartphone and saw that his position was positive and the target had almost been reached. He was so excited that he almost drove into a canal!

Conclusion: Sometimes speculators incur losses due to entering the market and failing to exercise positions without proper exit plan when real money is involved. You’ve to plan effective exit strategies. Keep sharpening your skill, precious traders. Make your trading rules simple and clear. Avoid overconfidence and remain humble.  .

I’d like to conclude this article with quotes from Joe Ross:

1. “Before placing a trade, you should always ask yourself “how much will I lose if this trade goes wrong?” Many traders have no clue as to how much capital they’re risking on any single trade. That’s a mistake. The most successful traders focus on limiting risk and protecting capital, rather than just making money. By limiting their downside, they successfully grow their account over time. You can easily copy their strategy.”

2. “Start by always using a stop-loss. That will protect you from losing too much. But equally important: you should also limit the amount you risk on every single trade. I recommend risking no more than 5% of your account on any trade. As you can see, letting emotions get in the way of your trading is not a good idea.  If you’re making any of these mistakes… it’s only a matter of time before your account will blow up. Most traders learn this the hard way. But if you avoid these… key pitfalls, you will not only save money, but will also become a better trader, moving one step closer to complete financial independence.”

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha

Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Senior Analyst

FX Instructor, LLC

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

Get my Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

If you want my coming trading articles delivered directly into your inbox (I don’t support spamming in any way), you can send me an email titled “Request for Trading Articles.”

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.


Unlock the Power of Everlasting Triumph in the Markets – Part 1

About Me
My Articles

YOUR MINDSET MATTERS

“Are you trading to learn or are you trading to earn? …Having goals based around financial outcomes when you’re still learning the basic skills of trading can actually be counter-productive. If you have expectations of earning from trading while you’re still learning, then it shouldn’t come as a major shock when you fail to meet those expectations! …There’ll come a point when you’ll be required to commit fully to your trading business. A time to narrow down the options, focus on what have been working for you and conduct your trading as a full time business.” – Paul Wallace

Hello:

I’d tried all the logic I knew, still, my trading results were not improving. In fact, my trading performance was getting worse. Those who thought I was good at trading had seen that I couldn’t handle the market. I’d received a brief training and practiced briefly. Having breathed the market prior to that time, I fought stubbornly and desperately, but I was floored. I slumped in the presence of those who thought I was a champion. My condition was very pitiful. I thought of giving up. “Those consistently winning traders must be gods. They must have superhuman ability. I wasn’t cut out to be like them.” I concluded. However, what would happen to me if I gave up? I’d need to subject myself to the harsh realities of the labor market. Should I accept failure and go do something else, like every Dick and Harry? Should I press ahead on my way to success? What should I do with my life? This happened to me many years ago.

Yes, there are successful traders, but they aren’t gods. They’re only humans; just like you and me. I knew I must discover what they do differently and do so accordingly or else I’d be in trouble. True, there are successful traders and they have something in common. Consider Anton Kreil who was born in a poor family, for instance. Kreil is a professional trader formerly of Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and JP Morgan. While at university and by the age of 20 he built a profitable portfolio and was hired by Goldman Sachs to work on Wall Street, later returning to London to trade on their Long/Short Pan European Equities desk. At the age of 26 Kreil was a vice president of JP Morgan European Equities. He retired from the Investment Banking industry at the age of 28, and after traveling the world, returned to London in the summer of 2008 to film the BBC T.V. program “Million Dollar Traders.” 8 novice traders were provided with training and $1 million to trade during the financial crisis. They outperformed professional hedge fund managers by 4% over the 2-month period. While most of the contestants couldn’t handle the pressure and were either fired or resigned, the show proved that normal people can actually trade on par with the professionals given the right instruction. The show was aired in 2009 and received global cult status, reaching territories as far as Australia, catapulting Kreil to limelight during ensuing crisis. Kreil would soon be touring the space.

Many people admire and appreciate highly successful people. But they find it difficult to do what those successful people did (persistently and consistently) before they could become what they’re. I’ve seen multitudes of people reading popular and best-selling inspirational and motivational (self-help) books, but their life remains the same. It seems those books are making money for their authors, not for their buyers. Why? People would read or listen, yet they won’t change their mindset. Reading and listening are easy, whereas doing isn’t easy. You mustn’t put money first in what you’re doing in life. If money is your prime target, you’ll get discouraged in face of the challenges that must come your way. This is also true of trading. Fear often shows up in us when we’re at risk of losing money. When fear takes over, it cripples us emotionally and saps us mentally. A fearful spirit is more vulnerable to the enemy (irrational emotions), which tempts us to compromise sound trading convictions and to do things according to our emotions.

Can you do what successful people do? Think about those great general overseers/superintendents. I think of a general overseer who had a very humble beginning. I think of his innovations, wisdom, enthusiasm, tireless activities for the sake of his organization, laying peerless examples, preparing sermons on day-to-day basis, writing books and articles, and doing things that most members of his organization are unable or unwilling to do individually in their own small world. Many of those general overseers/superintendents have been enthusiastically active for decades. No wonder success must locate them. They must have extraordinary achievements. They have been richly rewarded and are the envy of mediocrities. These great overseers/superintendents began like you. They possessed what you posses; the difference is that they made use of what they had in unique and enthusiastic ways. They’d no advantage over you in the first place; only that you feel unable or unwilling to do what they can do. If you don’t discover the seed of greatness in you, you could spend the rest of your life as a traffic man for their organization. Many people who’ve permanently limited themselves to being followers have seeds of leadership in them. Does your overseer/superintendent recognize your ability? It takes humility to recognize that someone under one’s oversight may have a better way of doing things than one does. But then again, no one – not even an overseer – has a monopoly on good ideas.

Life starts where your comfort zone ends You got to achieve extraordinary things before people can believe and respect you. Are you satisfied with your present lot? You oughtn’t to pretend that everything is alright when it isn’t. You should be able to reveal your weaknesses in order to find strength rather than conceal your faults to appear strong.

It Isn’t Late To Experience Permanent Victory
I’ve always said that trading myths have infected the human society. Do trading myths match the real facts? The answer is worth knowing. Why? Because the truth about trading can free you from needless fear, brighten your outlook on your future in the market, and influence the way you think about trading. Very few top traders would reveal the secret that gives them a huge edge over other traders. In a sense, trading in the market is like playing a game of poker; a really big game of poker. The players (at least, the good ones) attempt to keep their cards close to the vest. Think about it. The worst thing you can do in a game of poker is to show your opponents your cards. If you do, they’ll know when they should bet and when they should fold. Nonetheless, here’s the good news: The secret is available to you free of charge. In the series of articles bearing the main topic above, the secret would be revealed systematically. “I used to blame the markets for my lack of progress in trading,” one trader admits. “However, in time, I realized that I’d to make effort too.” You need to realize that the time has come for you to act. You need to learn and apply the principles that will ensure your everlasting triumph in the markets. You need to learn how to avoid margin call permanently. You need to learn how to pull out returns from the markets on annual basis – no matter what happens in the markets. You need to know how to trade with calm and lasting peace of mind. You only got to change your mindset. You need to empty your past bad trading experiences and develop winning trading mindset.

Many people have passion for trading, but they don’t understand how the markets actually work. In time, many traders learn that if they confront the issues that are impeding their success, they’ll usually feel better about themselves and their trading. Here, I’m not talking about trading styles that’ll make you smile today and cry tomorrow. Unlocking the power of everlasting triumph in the markets might require the utmost patience on your part. But payoff – permanent victory – is worth it.

Conditioning Your Mindset
How do you take control of your destiny in the financial markets? You’ve to repeat what you must do as often as necessary until they become part of your subconscious mind. You’ve to remind yourself of these constantly until they become your second nature. You’ve to say them to yourself repeatedly until you start reacting to them automatically. Personally I’ve reached a level of complete calm, peace and serenity in the markets. I know what to do when placing trades and managing trades – whether they’re negative or positive. My positive reactions to market situations now come naturally and automatically. You can use your willpower to achieve this. Just declare to yourself what must happen to you in your trading career and they’ll come to you eventually. This method has proven to be highly effective! If you liked, you might recite the points below (every morning) for the next 30 days. You’ll eventually discover that your willpower would override negative, irrational and suicidal emotions and trading styles. You’ll naturally do the right things and be rewarded eventually. You’ll ultimately discover that you’re trading effortlessly; with positive returns in the long run.

Please recite these points in quiet surroundings:

1. I, Mustapha Azeez (mention your name) will surely be one of the best traders in the world, and nothing will stop me from achieving my aim.

2. My past flops are not part of me. They happened, but they’re not me. I’m not a failure. Trading failure isn’t part of me.

3. I couldn’t care less whether losing and breakeven traders are 90% or 95% or 98%. What I know is that I’ll be among the 10% or 5% or 2% winning traders. Nothing will preclude me from joining this group.

4. Others may find trading very hard, but it’s not going to be hard for me. The difficulties and uncertainties in the markets will be my permanent ally. All future uncertainties and unpredictability of price movements will work in my favor in the long run.

5. I totally reject all forms of discouragement from those who thought they failed in the markets or who think they know those who failed. My lot as from now is with successful traders.

6. As a trader, my future trading results will be a testimony to others, including doubting Thomases and detractors. So shall it be.

7. Financial freedom is the ultimate reward of my journey as a trader. Noting will prevent me from attaining this noble goal.

8. As a trader, I’ll be a blessing to my family, my friends and others. I’ll be a blessing to the trading world. This will come to pass.

9. I’m going to choose only positive expectancy trading systems, and nothing more. Positive expectancy has worked in the long past, and therefore it’ll work for me. It’s stood the test of the time, and it’ll work for me. It’s been practically effective for over a century. It’s survived all market types and conditions, and it’ll work for me.

10. I expect losses in trading, but they won’t last forever. My losing streaks are temporary. I believe that, through positive expectancy, I’ll always recover my losses and move ahead in the long run. This is a timeless fact and it’ll always work in my favor.

11. What I’m going to learn from the articles in this series, not in abstract terms, but concrete terms, will work for me. The knowledge will be my power to achieve permanent triumph in the markets.

12. Lasting solution to my trading problems begins right now. The solution starts coming to me right now. This is my will, and it’ll come to pass.

13. I’ve decided to trade only what I see; and nothing more than what I see or what I think will happen.

14. As a trader, I will have peace of mind, calm and tranquility – knowing that my risk is constantly under control.

15. I, Mustapha Azeez (mention your name) will never trade without stop loss. I’ll honor my stop levels always and never widen them. This is my permanent insurance policy in the markets. Nothing on earth will ever make me run my losses. If I’m stopped out of trades, I’m stopped out. This is my will and it’s so.

16. I’ve decided to give safety priority over profit. I’ll always use small position sizing. I’ll consider this before I open my orders. Nothing will tempt me again to use big position sizing. I hereby declare myself free of greed.

17. No matter what happens, I won’t cut my profit prematurely. I’m determined to run my profit until my breakeven stop or trailing stop or target is hit. This is my will and I’ll do it.

18. My breakeven stop and trailing stop won’t be too tight as to cause premature exits; neither will they be too wide to cause too much exposure. I’ll always use optimum parameters as they’ll be revealed.

19. I hereby decide to follow my time-tested trading plan. I’ll let profits take care of themselves. I’ll be satisfied with whatever profit I earn on annual basis.

20. I’m totally free. I’m no longer a trader that’ll be glued to the screen, running mental because of price fluctuations. I’ll use the minimum time possible trading and achieve commendable results. This is my will and I’ll do it.

21. I’ve begun my journey to lasting success in trading. All the above declarations are solemn: they’ll be observed solemnly.

Conclusion: In your future trading activities, view challenges as something that’ll strengthen and sustain you. The second part of the articles in this series would be made available at the end of February 2012.

NB: Even in the presently turbulent market, you can experience permanent safety and victory from correct knowledge of trading, risk control and self control. If you’d need further information or you’d like to have a professional attend to you, please contact FXInstructor.com.

I’d prefer to conclude this article with a quote from Dr. Woody Johnson:

“Humans are impulsively driven by greed and the desire to dominate. They will take the easiest way to get and keep what they want. This often has negative and unintended consequences that are frequently destructive. And humans are not naturally prone to accountability or self-discipline, which is why we need laws, rules, boundaries and limits in society. Trading requires self-imposed limits and these limits must be created through personal accountability.”

NB: Please watch out for my coming articles with these titles: ‘Does High Hit Rate Work Always?’ ‘My Typical Trading Day,’ ‘A Trader’s Trick Entry Technique – Sighting Golden Trading Opportunities,’ ‘Making Money out of Losses – A Blessing in Disguise,’ ‘Achieve a Better Hit Rate with Gap Trading (Using the Logic Yourself),’ ‘Play the Markets Victoriously with Nano-cent Accounts,’ ‘Why It’s Difficult to Do the Right Things in the Markets,’ ‘How to Identify a Sideways Market – Be Safe!’ ‘A Negative Expectancy System – Pushing Against the Wind?’ ‘Trading Signals,’ ‘An Intraday Moves Catcher – A Wealth Generating System,’ ‘Unlock the Power of Everlasting Triumph in the Markets (Parts 2 – 12),’ ‘How to Handle Uncertainties in the Markets,’ ‘The Issue of Stops (Come Back! Oh Come Back!),’ ‘A Hedge Funds Strategy,’ ‘My Hedge Funds Strategy Update,’ ‘Experiment with Different Exit Tactics,’ ‘Mastering the Market Equilibrium Zones – A Time-sensitive Method,’ ‘How I Apply Risk Management – Part 3,’ ‘A Simple Positive Expectancy System – Trading Effortlessly,’ ‘Testimonies from My Subscribers (2),’ ‘Resist the Lure of High Risk – Part 4’ ‘Worst-case Scenarios – Facts Are Sacred,’ ‘Effective Swing Trading in Forex,’ ‘Gap Trading Revisited,’ ‘3 Recent Gap Trades,’ ‘Developing the Right Attitude towards Losses – Part 4 (Losses Aren’t Abnormal),’ ‘The True Holy Grail – The Long Sought for,’ ‘Forex Trading Vocabulary,’ ‘ Clarifying Some Issues – Part 6,’ ‘Navigating Turbulent Markets – A Double Timeframe Analysis,’ ‘Before You Open that Trade,’ ‘Cogent Trading Biases,’ ‘Overview of My Signals Strategies – Can You Become a Super Trader?’ ‘Winning Trades, Losing Trades,’ ‘Uncertainty Has Become My Ally – An Interview with a Dogged Market Speculator,’ ‘The Cost of Discipline,’ ‘Monthly Market Review,’ ‘I Can’t Express How Grateful I’m to You!’ ‘Yearly Trading Update (2012) – The Big Picture,’ ‘What We’ve Decided to Do in the Markets – Trend Following It Is!’ ‘Annual Trading Results (2011) – I Was Perfecting My Trading Skill,’ ‘Monthly Trading Report (December 2011),’ etc.

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha
Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

Get my Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

If you want my coming trading articles delivered directly into your inbox (I don’t support spamming in any way), you can send me an email titled “Request for Trading Articles.”

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

 

 

Weekly Trading Update (January 27, 2012)

About Me
My Articles

“It’s important for a trader to have a solid approach and clear setups, which he then trades consistently without giving much thought to each individual trade. Since we’ve developed and internalized these setups, we can trade consistently.” – Philipp Schroeder

Hello:

The currency market’s incredible growth has done little to change the ratio of winning to losing traders. The majority still lose most of the time, and they still don’t have to. Reading some books, buying a charting program, opening a brokerage account and starting to trade isn’t a trading business plan. Random reinforcement (as it relates to harmful trading practices) occurs when a trader attributes a random outcome to skill. It’s especially harmful if a neophyte who wins a few trades, without a plan, continues to trade without realizing the losses until it’s too late. Sorry, this is not to sound bumptious or cast aspersion on beginner traders. Emotions and ego make it difficult to change our behavior patterns. As I’ve talked about it before, the art/science of trading can be broken down into three key components: 1.) A set of high probability indicators/strategies that generate high probability trades. 2). Consistent execution of those trades. 3).Successful management of those trades. Speculators ought to carry out the foregoing with unflinching pertinacity. Whether you’re developing your own trading system or following along with a successful trader, using stops and safety parameters will help you develop good trading habit.

Below is the summary of some of my trading activities this week.

AUDUSD
Primary Trend: Bullish
Yes, the outlook on this pair remains bullish. The market has moved tremendously to the upside. It pays to wait for a price retracement before entering long. As the price is retracing right now, I’m looking forward to entering long at a support level. Guess what that level is?

NZDUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
Like its AUDUSD counterpart, the movement on this pair is also bullish. I placed a ‘buy’ order earlier this week and it’s now positive (having achieved a 130-pip movement). The stop was moved to breakeven – in case something drastic happens in the markets. Bad news can be another hint. If the relevant currency was affected by good news in the past, but suddenly there’s bad news. That as well could well mean the end of an existing trend.

AUDNZD
Primary trend: Bearish
This bearish cross isn’t looking attractive right now, and I’ll have to stay out of the market as a result of this. The SMA 50 is below the SMA 200, while the price is hovering around the former. The RSI 14 is still winding around the level 50. The Stochastic 14,3,5 didn’t get to the overbought zone in it’s recent move and is heading down. Sitting on the fence remains the best decision for now.

EURCAD
Primary trend: Bearish
The bullish movement that started last week still continues – something that threatens the current bearish outlook. You shouldn’t be beguiled by the price moves! This market is consolidating at this moment; plus I might set a Buy Limit pending order in an attempt to buy low. Even if there’s another slippage, my position can still go positive. Slippage is the difference between the price at which we wanted to have our order executed and the price where it actually did get executed.

EURNZD
Primary trend: Bearish
In the presently consolidating move that has resulted from a minor bullish correction, the market seems poised for another major leg down. The SMA 50 is far below the SMA 200 while the price is hovering around the former. The ADX 20 is around the level 15 – showing a directionless market. +DI and –DI are intertwined. This gives no conspicuous direction, but it’s clear that the strength of the Euro can’t withstand the strength of the New Zealand dollar at the moment.

GBPCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
The threat to the previous bullish scenario prevailed eventually. Those who sell higher are in for a nice ride down. But the level at 1.4300 looks like an adamant support. If price is able to break that level, the bears’ stamina will be renewed. Just play safe, ride the trend and avoid a margin call. Someone said that his kids and their husbands and grandkids have all managed to stay out of jail all their lives. Have you ever managed to stay away from margin call in your entire trading career?

Conclusion: Extensive observations of historical data have revealed that it isn’t unusual for market efficiency to diminish at times. This usually occurs when there’s high insecurity, and the market needs some time to collect new information before prices properly reflect the changed condition. However, this uncertainty can only offer high rewards to traders who’re willing to take risks, especially in the near-term. But note that without a professional trading plan and conservative risk control measures, there’s no chance for long-term survival in such ever changing market ambience.

I’d like to conclude this article with a quote from Sam Seiden:

“The day someone decides they are going to pursue a trading career, they are typically making that decision because of the potential financial prize. In other words, they are making that decision because of the perceived benefit. What most people don’t understand, let alone consider, is that they are about to step into a “mine field” of traps that have the potential to drain and destroy your bank account and your self-confidence all at once. When I look at the traders who do well and those who don’t, there is an obvious observation. The group of traders who focus on the prize tend to lose money and never achieve their goal. The group of new traders that focus on the traps and risk tend to succeed and reach their goal. As always, it’s one group providing income for the other; that’s trading.”

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha

Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

Get my Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

If you want my coming trading articles delivered directly into your inbox (I don’t support spamming in any way), you can send me an email titled “Request for Trading Articles.”

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

Examples of the USDCAD Hedging Trades

About Me
My Articles

“For me the most important thing is intuition. The markets represent an ‘intelligent chaos’ globally. This is a fantastic idea. There’s not a deliberate intelligence in the markets, it’s more of structural intelligence. I think that the only way to have good performance in the markets and to earn money is with the help of intuition.” – Jochen Steffens

Hello:

Here are a few examples of recent trades that were opened based on the rules of the strategy discussed here. This is what follows the optimization of the USDCAD Hedging strategy. Developing an extensive trading system is only worthwhile if one can be sure that the trading signals of the system can be implemented in real trading. A correct trade may first go in the forecasted direction before a trend reversal. One of the first signs of a trend reversal is the breaking of an important trend line. However, the violation of the trend line mayn’t only be a signal of a change in trend; it could also be a sideways trend or a price pattern, which later proves to be a reversal or a consolidation.

The current value of a price is also something that mustn’t be ignored. Value, and its relation to price, is a matter of future price gain. Future prices will emerge from what other people do after you get filled. Any transaction is an agreement over current price with a disagreement over future prices. Or as Buffet puts it: price is what you pay, value is what you get. If value for us is determined by future transactions, it can’t be known the moment we put in our order. Only afterwards will it become clear as the position starts showing us a profit or a loss. Therefore one needs to have a strategy that can handle this kind of scenario; even if it’s a choppy market. A hedging strategy is well adapted to handle choppy markets easily. The choppy market cannot make up its mind. It often changes direction for no apparent reason – something clearly visible on many timeframes. This means investors are torn between being bullish and bearish and neither the bulls nor the bears can gain the upper hand. This usually happens during periods of no dramatic news or just before a change in the trend. This market is usually difficult to assess and trading usually produces more loss than gains (unless one uses a hedging strategy). Entry into such a market, calling both long and short trades would therefore be recommended.

A market can definitely rip higher for long time, but at some point it’ll have to rest and consolidate, and sometimes it’ll even come back down to earth and reverse all those spectacular gains. When trading with this strategy, entry should be made in the medium to long term main direction, but having the possibility of a reversal in mind. A corresponding signal and an early entry may likely return or not return to the vicinity of the stops placed.

Trade Examples
There is a need to show you some trades that were taken based on the trading method discussed here. Spreads were not considered in these examples. The trades were only on the USDCAD. They were placed on the same day and nearly at the same time.

Example 1:
A. Order: Buy
Entry date: November 18, 2011
Entry price: 1.0268
Stop loss: 0.9768
Take profit: 1.0418
Exit date: November 23, 2011
Exit price: 1.0418
Status: Closed
Profit/loss: 150 pips

B. Order: Sell
Entry date: November 18, 2011
Entry price: 1.0270
Stop loss: 1.0770
Take profit: 1.0120
Exit date: December 2, 2011
Exit price: 1.0120
Status: Closed
Profit/loss: 150 pips

Example 2:
A. Order: Buy
Entry date: September 5, 2011
Entry price: 0.9869
Stop loss: 0.9369
Take profit: 1.0019
Exit date: September 12, 2011
Exit price: 1.0019
Status: Closed
Profit/loss: 150 pips

B. Order: Sell
Entry date: September 5, 2011
Entry price: 0.9862
Stop loss: 1.0362
Take profit: 0.9712
Exit date: September 16, 2011
Exit price: 0.9792
Status: Closed
Profit/loss: 70 pips

Note: Prior to the examples shown above, a pair of short and long trades was opened on August 22, 2011. The short trade hit its 150-pip target on August 31, 2011 while the remaining negative trade later got its loss reduced to approximately -50 pips on September 2, 2011 (owing to some rally on the USDCAD). The remaining negative trade was closed after the exit criterion was met. As you can see, one trade was closed at +150 pips and the other trade was later closed at -50 pips. The closed profit was bigger than the closed loss. That is the logic. Also remember that 4-hour charts are used only for the purpose of examples. The strategy is non-timeframe specific.

A Free Gift to Interested Readers
This strategy has already been sent as a gift to my trainees and subscribers, but I also want to give it free to 20 readers only. Only 20 of my readers would get it free, and therefore, it’ll be on first-come-first-served basis (for the early bird catches the worm). After 20 copies have been sent out, no more copies of this strategy would be made available by me. This is one way of compensating avid readers of my articles. Readers now have a chance to posses this strategy. It’ll be in form of an easily understood and do-it-yourself format. It comes with simple explanation, entry criteria, exit criteria, alternative exit, stop loss, effective trade management and other valuable hints. It’ll also contain recent trades and their accompanying charts. Please send me an email titled ‘A Request for Strategy’ to get your own free copy before it’s too late.

I conclude this article with a quote from Jochen Steffens:

“At the risk of oversimplification, you’ve to turn off the mind for trading. The mind is very powerful and helpful in all areas of life, but usually not on the markets. It’s more of a limiting factor here. That’s because the mind is completely overwhelmed. During trading we have ‘voices’ in our head that recommend doing this or that or expecting one or the other movements; but the many voices aren’t only needless but counter-productive. Use your mind when you define and test a setup – turn your mind off during trading. I think that trading is approximately 80% psychology and 20% technique.”

NB: Please watch out for my coming articles with these titles: ‘My Typical Trading Day,’ ‘A Trader’s Trick Entry Technique,’ ‘Making Money out of Losses – A Blessing in Disguise,’ ‘Achieve a Better Hit Rate with Gap Trading (Using the Logic Yourself),’ ‘Play the Markets Victoriously with Nano-cent Accounts,’ ‘Why It’s Difficult to Do the Right Things in the Markets,’ ‘How to Identify a Sideways Market – Be Safe!’ ‘A Negative Expectancy System – Pushing Against the Wind?’ ‘Trading Signals,’ ‘An Intraday Moves Catcher – A Wealth Generating System,’ ‘Unlock the Power of Everlasting Triumph in the Markets (Parts 1 – 12),’ ‘How to Handle Uncertainties in the Markets,’ ‘The Issue of Stops (Come Back! Oh Come Back!),’ ‘A Hedge Funds Strategy,’ ‘My Hedge Funds Strategy Update,’ ‘Experiment with Different Exit Tactics,’ ‘Mastering the Market Equilibrium Zones – A Time-sensitive Method,’ ‘How I Apply Risk Management – Part 3,’ ‘A Simple Positive Expectancy System – Trading Effortlessly,’ ‘Testimonies from My Subscribers (2),’ ‘Resist the Lure of High Risk – Part 4’ ‘Worst-case Scenarios – Facts Are Sacred,’ ‘Effective Swing Trading in Forex,’ ‘Gap Trading Revisited,’ ‘3 Recent Gap Trades,’ ‘Developing the Right Attitude towards Losses – Part 4 (Losses Aren’t Abnormal),’ ‘The True Holy Grail – The Long Sought for,’ ‘Forex Trading Vocabulary,’ ‘ Clarifying Some Issues – Part 6,’ ‘Navigating Turbulent Markets – A Double Timeframe Analysis,’ ‘Before You Open that Trade,’ ‘Cogent Trading Biases,’ ‘Overview of My Signals Strategies – Can You Become a Super Trader?’ ‘Winning Trades, Losing Trades,’ ‘Uncertainty Has Become My Ally – An Interview with a Dogged Market Speculator,’ ‘The Cost of Discipline,’ ‘Monthly Market Review,’ ‘I Can’t Express How Grateful I’m to You!’ ‘Yearly Trading Update (2012) – The Big Picture,’ ‘What We’ve Decided to Do in the Markets – Trend Following It Is!’ ‘Annual Trading Results (2011) – I Was Perfecting My Trading Skill,’ ‘Monthly Trading Report (December 2011),’ etc.

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha
Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

Get my Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

If you want my coming trading articles delivered directly into your inbox (I don’t support spamming in any way), you can send me an email titled “Request for Trading Articles.”

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

 

Weekly Trading Update (January 20, 2012)

About Me
My Articles

“Remember, the definition of effective trading is not solely connected to profit and loss, but to consistent execution. Profit that is not associated with a plan and follow-through of all of your rules is profit that is not helping you become a better trader.” – Dr. Woody Johnson

Hello:

Forex trading is nothing other than speculation on certain price developments. It’s not a prognosis. One has to be careful with market predictions, yet a negative trade shouldn’t cause consternation, provided it’s being handled by an experienced trader. It often takes a lot of time and effort to analyze a situation or individual instrument. We learn thru this and increase our knowledge but this also leads to the assumption that a situation would have a likely or an unlikely outcome. Human nature leads us to choose the probable outcome and wager our socks on it. And that’s the inborn shortcoming. It’s important that we don’t take the analysis as a reality. We can speculate on the possible outcome, but we’ve to be aware that this is just that: pure speculation. Using a big position sizing because you think a particular trade must go in your direction can push you into a quandary. Risk has to be carefully considered. If you’ve analyzed something and have studied the situation very carefully or believe a story that you’ve read, you’re already in a precarious situation. Any time something looks like a too sure thing you need to step back and examine the situation again. There aren’t 100% chances in the market. You can do risk-to-reward assessment for every trade and determine a ratio but it’ll never be 1:0. Therefore you eventual success is contingent on cutting your losses and riding your profits.

Below is the summary of some of my trading activities this week.

AUDUSD
Primary Trend: Bullish
The bullish trend still continues but the market has been caught in an equilibrium zone. A break below 1.0350 may cause a turn in the trend while a break above 1.0450 might cause a renewed bullish strength. You should have the gumption to see the right direction and go with it.

NZDUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The trend remains bullish, and it’ll be nice if one buys a dip in price as soon as one spies a rally after the dip. But if this approach fails, one would need to orient oneself with the bears. The first change of direction earns the most profit, but it’s very difficult to be first.

AUDNZD
Primary trend: Bearish
In the current bearish scenario, one might need to continue to sell every rally as it’s true of the recent historical data. The RSI 14 is still winding around the level 50. The Stochastic 14,3,5 is heading to the overbought region, paving a way for a sell opportunity. Only a trader with desultory attitudes would trade without a clear-cut plan.

EURCAD
Primary trend: Bearish
In the currently massive bearish scenario, the market seems to have bottomed at 1.2870 and has rallied by over 200 pips since then. Could this be the beginning of a new lease of bull market or an opportunity for traders to sell higher? These possibilities apply to both long and short trades – only in opposite directions.

EURNZD
Primary trend: Bearish
The outlook on this cross is similar to that of the EURCAD. The SMA 50 is far below the SMA 200. The ADX 20 is very close to the level 30 – supporting a possibility of some new bullish power. +DI is above –DI. Only time would tell if the present rally would hold out long enough.

GBPCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
The bullish trend is now seriously threatened, and if this threat continues, the trend may change completely. The CHF has gotten some renewed strength, so one would need to adjust accordingly, rather than using gut feeling. How important rally is gut feel? Did your grandpa or great grandpa ever sell tickets on the Titanic?

Conclusion: Joy and fear in trading are very easy to describe but very hard to deal with. Simply put, you should only trade if you can watch from the side lines. Any joy, fear, greed or excitement will disrupt your analytical behavior. If you are convinced that there is only one direction, it is best to trade something else. Emotions are a terrible trading companion – especially in currency trading.

I’d like to conclude this article with quotes from Dr. Brett N. Steenbarger:

1. “We pursue short-term pleasures (and avoid short-term discomfort) at the expense of longer-term rewards… It’s difficult to tolerate even normal drawdowns unless you have confidence in your methods.”

2. “These include trading slumps and increased personal expenses that change how traders trade and lead them to place P/L ahead of making good trades. By worrying too much about how much money they make, traders can no longer follow markets with a clear head.”

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha

Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Senior Analyst

FX Instructor, LLC

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

Get my Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

If you want my coming trading articles delivered directly into your inbox (I don’t support spamming in any way), you can send me an email titled “Request for Trading Articles.”

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.