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In the previous review we noted that the SMAs were flat. No candles closed above the 1.32 line and there was a gentle bearish…
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In the previous forex forecast review of the EUR/USD, we noted that both SMAs were flat and that indicated uncertainty. Funda…
Apr 10, 2012
Watch the latest analysis of the USD/CAD, EUR/USD Forex pairs for the April 10th in this video. USD/CAD — rose again during the Monday session only to fall again and form a shooting star. This pair has been stuck right under the parity level — 1.000 level since the beginning of the year. The pair is heavily influenced by oil, and the Light Sweet Crude markets formed a hammer — suggesting the oil markets may rise. This pair is driven by the oil markets, inversely. As the oil market rises this pair falls and vice versa. So we like selling this pair is an easy trade. A break of lows from Monday session will send this pair down looking for support at 0.9900 level. It does look like we have fairly an easy scalp. The 200 Exponential MA just above the parity level adds even more weight to the resistance. EUR/USD — pair fell but managed to form a hammer above the 1.30 support level on Monday session. As a general rule, buying the Euro isn’t a wise idea, and we will simply be waiting for the bounce to sell this pair yet again. Although it has formed a hammer above the 1.30 level, it keeps falling everytime it tries to rally. So bounces are seen as selling opportunity to sell at higher levels. This pair will probably struggle at about 1.3250 to 1.33 levels — seen as a signal to sell on signs of weakness. A close below the 1.30 level is seen as extremely bearish signal. It does look a short term buying opportunity on the break of the highs from Monday session, however the problems in the euro zone are far from over. So we just tend to stay away from owning the euro at the moment.
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In the previous weekly forex forecast review of the EUR/USD we noted that the SMAs were not indicative of any sustained momen…
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In the previous EUR/USD Weekly Review, we noted that from a technical perspective the short and medium term SMAs were displ…
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In the previous EUR/USD weekly review, we noted that from a technical perspective, the 1.44 continued to provide a strong s…
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In the previous EUR/USD weekly review, we noted that the short term SMA 20 was pointing downwar…
EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, broke above the symmetrical triangle and 1.4200 resistance area as you can see on my h4 below and now seems ready to test July 13th high at 1.4281, which is also the EMA 200 region on h4 chart. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.4281 testing the upper line of my daily chart descending triangle (red) and 1.4373 resistance area. Immediate support is seen around 1.4200 – 1.4170 region. As long as price stays above that area my intraday bias remains to the upside. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear. CCI in bullish zone both in hourly and h4 chart but remains neutral on daily chart. Technically speaking, if the bullish continues and lead price breaks above 1.4373 and brings daily CCI in bullish zone above 100 level, we may see further bullish scenario. The fundamental aspects of the Euro zone remain fragile and might need just one bad news to cancel the current technical bullishness and lead us back to a consolidation condition but would give the descending triangle bearish scenario a good chance to bring the single currency to the downside.
EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4013 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.4124. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving inside a symmetrical triangle indicates consolidation. Price is still in a bearish correction phase since the fall from 1.4939 but note that the major weekly bullish outlook also remains intact. Immediate resistance is seen at the upper line of the symmetrical triangle around 1.4200 region which is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4577 – 1.3836. A clear break above the triangle could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.4281 even the upper line of the daily chart descending triangle (red line). Immediate support is seen around 1.4080 (former intraday resistance). A clear break back below that area could trigger further bearish pressure retesting 1.4000 – 1.3960 support area. I still prefer a bearish scenario based on fragile Euro zone fundamental condition and the descending triangle on daily chart but conflicting multi time frame bias, consolidation and unclear risk – reward ratio are not my favorite intraday market condition so I prefer to stand aside for now and see further development. Unless you are a long term trader who use daily/weekly chart outlook with proper money management, I suggest you do the same.
