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In the previous EUR/USD Weekly Review, we noted that both the SMAs were almost flat. Typical of ranging curre…
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In the previous EUR/USD Weekly Review, we noted from a technical analysis point of view that the SMA 20 is still above the …
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In the previous EUR/USD Weekly Review, we noted that from a technical point of view we might be heading into some consolida…
EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4383 and now struggling around 1.4320. Despite of pessimistic outlook of fundamental condition in the Euro zone, technically, if you look at the hourly chart below, it’s clear that the single currency has been building a good bullish momentum since the appearance of the inverse H&S formation, moving in a bullish channel. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.4450 region. Immediate support at 1.4250 and the lower line of the bullish channel. A clear break below the bullish channel could be a threat to the current bullish intraday outlook retesting 1.4000 strong support area. From a longer term outlook at the daily chart, price is moving in a triangle formation suggests a consolidation phase. A fragile fundamental condition in the Euro zone could change the market sentiment quickly.
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In the previous EUR/USD Weekly Review, we noted that investors were probably getting apprehensive regarding the decis…
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In the previous EUR/USD weekly review, we noted that the US stocks were falling due to concerns towards the European deficit cri…
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum on Friday, break below 115.80 after some bad news from the Euro zone triggered broad Euro sell-off and hit 115.18 earlier today in Asian session. The fact that price is now traded below 116.00 changes my intraday bias back to bearish but note that we may have a strong support area at the lower line of the violated bearish channel (red) around 114.80. Not to mention that the major bearish scenario since the fall from 123.31 still need a clear break below 114.00 to continue the bearish scenario targeting 112.05 region. On the upside, a clear break back above 116.00 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 116.50 – 117.00/58 resistance area.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. There are two trend lines resistance which worth paying attention to as you can see on my h4 chart below. First, the white trend line, which is violated to the upside suggests a short term bullish view. Second, the blue trend line resistance which is being tested now along with 132.97 – 133.16 resistance area. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 134.00 which can be a threat to the bearish scenario. Aggressive intraday traders can still short around 132.97 – 133.16 due to a good risk – reward ratio. Immediate support at 132.00. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 131.50 – 130.75 but the key support area at this phase located around 130.20.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile but indecisive on Friday, made a Doji on daily chart but had some downside pressures earlier today in Asian session hit 1.0571. This fact stops the short term technical bullishness for now and changes my intraday bias back to bearish retesting strong intraday support around 1.0500. Immediate resistance at 1.0650. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear retesting the trend line resistance and 1.0700 which is for me remains the best place for a short position with good risk – reward ratio. Only a clear break above the trend line resistance could be a threat to the current bearish outlook since the fall from all time high at 1.1010. On the downside, a clear break below 1.0500 would open the door for further bearish scenario testing 1.0388 even 1.0200.
The EURUSD attempted to push higher this week, topped at 1.4344 but further short term technical bullishness was rejected, closed lower at 1.4155 after some bad news from the Euro zone triggered sharp Euro sell-off on Friday. Now let’s break it down to a multi time frames technical outlook to get a broader view. From a weekly and daily chart perspective, the Euro is still in a bullish outlook since the strong bullish momentum from 1.1875 and price is still moving inside a bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. Another information we have from daily chart is that price is moving in a range area between 1.4340 – 1.4050 since May 13. The failure to make a clear break above 1.4340 and the closing price at 1.4155 keep my medium/h4 chart bearish outlook since the fall from 1.4939 remains intact (see the red box area), although Euro started the week with some upside pressures which halted the short term bearish bias, still testing 1.4000 strong/psychological level. A clear break below 1.4000 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3860 – 1.3750 support area and the lower line of the bullish channel. So, the way I see it, the Euro still have some more spaces for further bearish pullback in upcoming week. My bearish medium/short term mode remains activated and only a clear break above 1.4340 could be a threat to my medium term bearish mode testing 1.4520. From a long term perspective on daily/weekly chart, if the bearish pressure continues, what will happen around 1.3750 and the lower line of the bullish channel could determine whether the bullish long term outlook remains intact or a bearish reversal scenario is on its way.
Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.
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In the previous EUR/USD weekly review, we noted that the bullish momentum had come a long way and technically a bearish correcti…
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In the previous EUR/USD weekly review, i mentioned that many believed that the current bullish run is far overextended. 1.48 …
