Forex and Trading News

Apr 27, 2012

Watch the latest analysis of the EUR/USD, GBP/USD Forex pairs for the April 27th in this video. EUR/USD — rose for the first part of the session, and fell for the rest of the session as S&P downgraded the country of Spain by two notches. The 1.3250 level continues to hold this pair down as it had several times in the past and it also coincides with the down trend line of the descending triangle. With this in mind this pair looks weak. A break of the lows from Thursday session should send this pair down to bottom of the triangle, roughly at the 1.3050 level. If we get lucky with our shorts from here at this level, we may actually see a breakdown. Once the 1.30 level gives away, we will see 1.26 level. GBP/USD — rose for part of the day, fell for the other, and in the end failed to move much. This pair looks a bit tired at this moment. As long as we are above the 1.60 to 1.6050 level — where we broke out, we like buying on pullbacks for this pair. Also the 1.61 level looks supportive as we have had a hammer there. Having said that, a pullback is certainly neccessary as this pullback will attract traders who have missed the buying opportunity during the breakout.

Apr 26, 2012

Watch the latest analysis of the USD/CAD, GBP/USD Forex pairs for the April 26th in this video. USD/CAD — we fell again and actually broke through the recent lows. We did pierce the bottom of this area. We are just above the 0.9800 handle and as such we feel much more comfortable on a daily close below this level — as markets tend to bounce off those large handles. The 200 MA is sloping down again and we formed a shooting star which did not rise as high as the previous highs before that. It is often the sign that we are about to break through consolidation bottoms in this case and exactly thats what we have done. While we do have a negative bias in this pair, we want to see a daily close below the 0.9800 level so that we can sell and hold this pair for a while. Otherwise we could potentially bounce and reenter consolidation on a little bit of a fakeout. But the odds are this pair will fall over time. GBP/USD — fell for the most of the session as for the obvious reason that the UK officially entered a recession, however bounced to form a hammer candle in the daily chart. This pair refusing to fall suggests that we could be seeing the 1.65 level. As such we like buying on dips for this pair and should continue to grind higher — as long as we are above the 1.59 handle.

Apr 26, 2012

Watch the latest analysis of the USD/CHF, USD/JPY Forex pairs for the April 26th in this video. USD/CHF — We had a negative session on Wednesday. Looks like it has found a little bit of support at 0.9080 which has produced several different reactions over the last 3 or 4 months. The bigger level we believe is 0.9000 level. Its difficult to sell this pair — as the Franc is held up in the EUR/CHF pair just 14 pips above the 1.20 floor set by the Swiss National Bank. We are looking for buy signals — we don’t see one right now. We think somewhere between 0.9080 and 0.9000 levels we should get another daily hammer candle to go long with this pair. USD/JPY — At the end of the day we are closing just slightly lower and we had a back and forth session. We broke out of the downward sloping channel only to close back within it. It looks the pair is basically unchanged. Later this week we have the Bank of Japan who should be expanding bond buy back and asset purchase program which is essentially printing Yen and in other words trying to weaken it. That should push this pair higher and as such we have a clear cut buy signal if we break the top of the daily range from Wednesday session. If we break the low then we see far too many places where support could come in below here until we are well below the 80.00 level — the 200 MA, the 50% and the 38.2% fibonacci retracement levels which would have to be broken. With all that being said we still prefer going long in this pair, we just need to see the breakout to the top of the hammer candle from Wednesday session inorder to do it.

Apr 25, 2012

Watch the latest analysis of the USD/CAD, GBP/USD Forex pairs for the April 25th in this video. USD/CAD — We have been consolidating for sometime and we are towards the bottom of this range. With the FMOC meeting later today, there is real potential for some type of market moving announcement. Until we get that announcement it is very risky to be in this pair. We could get initial sell—off if there are hints for furthter easing and it should push the oil markets higher. If there is any lack of mentioning about the easing in the statement, one could see this pair pop as the dollar gets bought, but over time rallies would be sold only as we approach the parity level — 1.00 level. We need to see a daily close below the 0.9800 level in order to sell or rallies to be shorted on signs of weakness below 1.01 level. If we manage to get a daily close above the 1.01 level, then it will be an extremely bullish sign. GBP/USD — had a reasonably strong day on Tuesday session. We got this hammer candle from Monday session and it did hold as support. So we see this as buy on dips pair. Ofcourse the Fed meeting announcement could produce some action in this pair. So it would be better to wait until that. As long as we are above the 1.59 level we are comfortable buying on dips in this pair as it has broken out and it looks rather healthy.

Apr 25, 2012

Watch the latest analysis of the EUR/USD, USD/JPY Forex pairs for the April 25th in this video. EUR/USD — we had a bullish session on Tuesday but gave back much of the gains towards the end of the day. The 1.32 level continues to be resistance in this pair. When you look at the pair overall, we are starting to try to form a descending triangle. The pressure is building to the downside. With the Federal reserve and its meeting later today, it is possible that we could finally see some move in this pair as it has been choppy. If the Fed fails to mention anything about easing or takes it off the table completely, this pair could fall and 1.30 level is the key to everything. We still like selling on rallies on this pair as long as we stay with in the triangle as seen in the daily chart and also sell on a daily close below the 1.30 level with extreme aggression. USD/JPY — We fell for the much of the session, but bounced in order to form a hammer candle in the daily chart. We are in a downtrending channel and it looks like the downtrend channel is being threatened, and looks very vulnerable. With the Fed and the BOJ both having meetings this week, we expect a move soon, especially the BOJ is expected to do anything to kill off the Yen. If the Fed doesnt mention anything about the QE, then we could see this pair breaking out of the downtrend channel in this session. We are still bullish of this pair as long as we are above the 80.00 level and the 200 MA and the 50% fibonacci retracement level are below in this pair. All positive potential supportive things in this pair, so we dont sell regardless and suspect that by the end of this week, this pair will be higher.

Apr 24, 2012

Watch the latest analysis of the USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forex pairs for the April 24th in this video. USD/CAD — The Dollar gained against the Canadian Dollar for most of the session on Monday and then turned around and fell back to form a pretty massive shooting star. With this in mind, the 200 MA above and the parity level — 1.0000 level seems to be holding this pair down. We are in a big massive consolidation area. It is not until we break out of this consolidation range which we have all the way up to 1.01 and down to 0.9800 level — we think this pair will be more than a scalping pair. A daily close below the 0.9800 level will have us selling aggressively and a daily close above 1.01 will have us buying. Until then scalping between parity and the 0.9800 level will be the way to go. USD/JPY — fell on Monday session but overall this pair still looks it has broken out. The 200 MA is approaching, the 38.2% fibonacci retracement level has held, the 80.00 level is below — we are buying on dips as the Bank of Japan is expected to increase their asset buy back program which is essentially the same thing as printing Yen. This should be announced later in this week. If the Fed fails to mention anything about quantitative easing during the Fed meeting on Wednesday, then it could accelerate the uptrend in this pair.

Apr 18, 2012

Watch the latest analysis of the EUR/USD, EUR/CHF Forex pairs for the April 18th in this video. EUR/USD — The 1.30 level continues to hold as support. We had a back and forth session on Tuesday, only to end up where it started basically. This is telling as we saw a massive “risk on” rally around the world in the various stock markets, and as a result we are very unimpressed with the Euro and its lack of follow through on the session. The 1.30 level is the one we need to pay attention to. A close below this level is seen as a signal to sell — down to 1.26 level before we run into massive support. However we could also see a bit of sideways grind or possibly a rally and a sell on signs of weakness type scenario. We won’t be buying this pair until we get above the 1.35 level which is well over the 200 MA as well. We are looking for signs of weakness to sell this pair or a daily close below the 1.30 level. EUR/CHF — continues to taunt the Swiss National Bank at the 1.20 level — the floor that the SNB has put in. There are only a couple of outcomes we look in here. It could ge grinding sideways. If the market pushes this pair below the 1.20 level, the SNB could intervene pusing it up to 1.24 in the process. Or the market may naturally grind higher. All these 3 scenarios have buying as the only logical outcome. You must be very patient in these markets as you can see the last couple of days it only had about a 30 pip range.

Apr 18, 2012

This video talks about the Triple Screen Trading System from the book — Trading for a living — Dr. Alexander Elder.

Apr 17, 2012

Watch the latest analysis of the USD/CAD, USD/CHF Forex pairs for the April 17th in this video. USD/CAD — is hovering just below the parity level again, and the Monday session saw an attempt to break through the 200 day EMA as well. However, as the day wore on — we saw the familiar pattern of falling back below the 1.00 mark by the end of the day and we have a shooting star candle on Monday session. This is very bearish. There are many reasons that we can sell this pair, however the problem we have though with that is the lows keep grinding higher and this looks a pair that is confused. Normally would be an excellent spot — a shooting star candle at the parity level. However we must pass on this trade until we get more clarity going forward. USD/CHF — We have been in a range between 0.9000 and 0.9250 levels. We originally attempted to pierce through the 0.9250 but fell back to the downside on Monday session. This pair now looks like we can trade it from either one of these areas — 0.9250 to 0.9000 levels — the areas to be watched and the rest is noise. In the meantime we will find it choppy and range bound going sideways. We need to wait and focus on those larger and more important phsycological numbers — 0.9250 to 0.9000 levels in this pair.